#美联储加息预期升温引爆加密流动性大考

监管政策narrativeLIVE 实时同步

美联储10月加息悬念加剧，市场定价与专家观点分歧显著。柯林斯暗示年底前或再加息，10月加息概率升至43.7%，引发加密市场流动性担忧。

美联储降息概率仅 1.6%，马斯克曝 SpaceX 特斯拉合并

宏观层面美联储维持高利率预期，监管端SEC与CFTC聚焦代币分类及AI金融，Extended完成链上迁移，NEAR调整经济模型，马斯克透露两大巨头正探讨合并。

woofun7 小时前9报道

分析

BTC 冲 8.3 万致 4500 万爆仓，警惕 FOMC 前第三波清算

10 月 20 日BTC冲高至 83,335 美元，引发 4570 万美元空头清算。Bitfinex警告若跌破 79,821 美元，或在 10 月 28 日FOMC会议前跌至 77,600 美元，现货需求疲软加剧风险。

woofun13 小时前17分析

观点

Wintermute 划定 8.25 万红线，FOMC 或引爆币圈变局

Wintermute将比特币 82,500 美元设为关键防线，指出通胀与宏观压力致山寨币流动性枯竭。市场聚焦 10 月 28 日 FOMC 会议，若美联储鸽派或财报强劲，BTC有望突破 87,000 美元；反之则可能回落至 70,000 美元，山寨币难有独立行情。

woofun14 小时前12观点

分析

BTC 月低震荡：五大宏观因子博弈 FOMC 前夜

比特币跌至月内低点，本周受科技财报、油价及通胀数据多重挤压，波动性显著加剧。市场目光聚焦27日美联储会议前的关键经济信号，利率预期博弈白热化。

woofun1 天前22分析

观点

加息概率五五开：美联储 10 月议息引爆加密流动性大考

距10月27-28日议息会议仅剩数日，市场在16%加息概率与专家五五开警告间剧烈分歧。面对顽固通胀与11月大选，激进或渐进路径将决定BTC等资产短期走向。

woofun1 天前17观点

观点

市场定价 17% vs 专家五五开：美联储 10 月加息悬念被低估

9月通胀数据超预期引发经济学家上调加息预期，尽管面临中期选举政治敏感期，多位专家警告若美联储意外加息，将重创当前毫无防备的市场。

woofun1 天前15观点

观点

埃蒙斯：10 月加息概率被低估，数据而非选举主导美联储

FedWatch创始人本·埃蒙斯指出市场低估10月加息可能，强调通胀数据与实时指标是决策核心，中期选举不影响政策，并警示滞胀风险。

woofun2 天前13观点

观点

比特币 8.1 万震荡：机构分歧与美联储加息阴影下的年末博弈

比特币在8.1万美元附近震荡，市场年末走势看法不一。Bitwise看涨至1万美元，LO看跌至8.5-9.5万。受美联储加息预期、通胀及美股波动影响，ETF资金流入放缓，衍生品杠杆缓解。

woofun2 天前20观点

观点

通胀超预期未破 8 万防线，FOMC 决议成下周关键

bitbank分析师长谷川友哉指出，尽管美CPI/PPI数据强劲，比特币仍守8万美元关口。市场聚焦10月FOMC利率决议，预计下周在8-8.5万美元区间震荡。

woofun3 天前34观点

观点

沃什定调 AI 变革与 12 月加息，美联储弃前瞻指引

美联储主席沃什在IMF年会指出AI是深远经济变革，短期推通胀长期利供给。他暗示10月按兵不动、12月或加息，并宣布放弃前瞻指引，回归数据驱动决策。

woofun4 天前19观点

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KOL 观点

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Fed to inject $5,179,000,000 into the economy today.

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Satoshi Stacker

@StackerSatoshi · 70 天前

看多

Odds that the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September have risen to 65% after the July CPI data came in exactly as forecast. https://t.co/fgLHFpoo8y

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VirtualBacon

@virtualbacon · 69 天前

看空

A lot of people still think the Fed's next move is a cut. Futures are close to a coin flip on a hike next month instead. Higher rates would be bad for stocks.

The U.S. Core CPI dropped to 2.5%, its lowest level in 5 months. The odds of a Fed rate hike have now dropped from 54% to just 38%. The Fed cares more about Core CPI because it excludes short-term price swings in food and energy. Bullish for markets 🚀

CPI eased to 3.4% in July (from 3.5%), but core inflation's still stuck at 2.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Add last week's weak jobs report to the mix, and the Fed's September call is looking like hike vs. hold, not hike vs. cut.

47196

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch · 69 天前

中性

Me on @BloombergTV talking about the Fed and inflation. https://t.co/kRJBaRWKYk

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Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch · 69 天前

中性

For those who want to be bullish on bonds, do you really want the Fed to NOT hike rates in September? Consider: The red line is the probability of a Fed hike on September 16th. It was above 100% until the July 29th FOMC meeting. It dived at that meeting, also dived on the employment report on August 7th, and on the CPI report this morning. It is currently 39%. The blue line is the 30-year yield. When the probability of a hike was over 100%, this 30-year yield was 5.08%. Now that the probability of a rate hike has declined to 39%, the 30-year yield is 16 basis points higher at 5.24%. See the thread below showing the same relationship has been in place for almost two years.

🇺🇸 THE PROBABILITY OF A FED RATE HIKE HAS DROPPED TO 40% AFTER CPI DATA CAME IN AS EXPECTED. Last month, the Fed paused rates and markets went sideways. This time: IF FED HIKE RATES → MARKETS WILL CRASH IF FED PAUSE RATES → MARKETS WILL SLIGHTLY PUMP IF FED CUT RATES → MARKET WILL PUMP HARD

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Cointelegraph

@Cointelegraph · 69 天前

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🇺🇸 NOW: The odds of a Fed rate hike in September fell to 40.1%, down from 48.4% a day ago, per CME FedWatch.

THIS IS HUGE 🇺🇸 Fed rate hike odds have dropped to 32% now No rate hike means crypto could pump

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