#伊朗USDT结算困局与制裁原油暗流

🇮🇷 JUST IN: Iran warns that any country backing new U.S. sanctions will be treated as an 'act of war,' per Politico.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may call it economic pressure. Tehran may call it war. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says Iran could respond to a U.S. economic campaign the same way it would respond to a military attack, particularly if countries help enforce it. The logic is pretty straightforward: if allowing your airbases to be used against Iran makes you a target, why should allowing your banks and financial system to be used against Iran be any different? Johnson's answer is that it shouldn't. And that puts the UAE in an uncomfortable position. But Gulf states have already realised Washington is not the security guarantee it once appeared to be and are quietly repairing relations with Tehran. The fact that the UAE has avoided another round of strikes is hardly irrelevant. Then there is the bigger problem with the sanctions strategy. China is refusing to play along. Pakistan is hardly going to abandon Iranian energy to keep Washington happy. Iranian oil is increasingly being settled in yuan, outside the U.S. financial system. The irony is becoming difficult to miss. The harder Washington squeezes Iran, the more Tehran's biggest partners have an incentive to build ways around Washington. 10 years ago, Russia and China helped enforce the sanctions regime. Today, they are helping Iran survive it. Meanwhile the rial has collapsed, Iran is restricting shipping through the Strait, and Tehran has reportedly been discussed for a regional defence pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Washington is promising the most devastating sanctions yet. Johnson's response? "I'll hold my breath."@NewSonof

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is staring down hyperinflation, gas shortages, and water shortages, and its response may be to strike the Gulf states anyway. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out why economic pain alone won't force a deal with the U.S. "Iranians are under severe economic pain and pressure and then they retaliate against the Gulf states. And then the Americans respond as well, and now you're back to where we were on February 28th. I don't see the exit ramp."@aarondmiller2

BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran calls for a U.S. congressional probe into President Trump and his family over alleged insider trading and market manipulation linked to the Iran war.

BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says there are no talks on extending the ceasefire with the US.

🇨🇳🇮🇷🇺🇸 China and Iran are having to get a bit more creative due to America's blockade, with increased reliance on air and train transport. With sea access restricted, focus has shifted to air freighters and overland rail corridors (via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) to move goods to and from China. China buys roughly 90% of Iran's total crude oil exports, while Beijing serves as Tehran's top trading partner. Source: CIG (TG) / Writer: Samuel

Goddamn it Iran knows how to meme. It’s hilarious.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sec. Scott Bessent just said the U.S. is about to apply unprecedented economic measures against Iran: "From Epic Fury to economic Fury, at the president's order, we have raised the level even again. Watch this space for more announcements coming next week, because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country." No explanation of how that would stop Iran from just turning the screws on the Gulf states, but okay. Writer: Mhedi

Iran’s ability to meme gives me hope they can be successfully reintroduced into the international community someday

🇮🇷 The country Washington spent decades trying to isolate now sets the terms for everyone else's security. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the region's governments are running out of room to pretend otherwise: "The countries are going to have to begin to adjust to reality. And that reality is that Iran is a huge power in the region. And if you want security, you have to take their security into consideration." Every capital hosting an American base is suddenly doing math it never had to do before.@Glenn_Diesen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's pressure strategy against Iran may be reaching its breaking point, because Tehran's answer to more pressure is more war Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says Washington is preparing to move from “Epic Fury” to “Economic Fury,” with unprecedented measures designed to isolate Iran and squeeze its economy even harder. There's just one problem. Tehran is signalling that the more Washington turns up the financial pressure, the more Iran is prepared to turn up the military pressure. An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has now warned that if Iran's demands aren't met, Tehran could shift from a defensive posture to an offensive one. Meanwhile, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper is reportedly becoming increasingly pessimistic that renewed fighting can be avoided. So while Washington publicly talks about pressure creating the conditions for diplomacy, the military appears to be preparing for the possibility that it produces exactly the opposite. And events on the ground are already moving in that direction. Two UAE-owned tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE blaming Iran. The Houthis are escalating around Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And during our discussion, reports emerged of another attack targeting Saudi Aramco infrastructure. But America may be preparing for another round of fighting without having solved one of the biggest problems exposed by the last one: Weapons production. The U.S is finally fielding its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, but the production rate is roughly one missile per month, with ambitions to increase that to two. And increasingly, America's adversaries appear to understand that the economics of warfare matter just as much as the weapons themselves. Fire cheaper weapons, force your enemy to burn expensive interceptors, drain their magazines, then use the weapons you've been saving. Trump's strategy rests on the assumption that enough pain eventually forces Tehran back to the negotiating table. Iran is betting on something very different: That enough pain forces America to decide this war simply isn't worth the price. And if neither side backs down, “Economic Fury” may not be the alternative to another war; it may be the trigger for it.@WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington's new plan is to strangle Iran's economy with unprecedented pressure... but 3,000 years of Silk Road trade stand in the way Bloomberg says the sanctions rollout comes next week, billed as the harshest economic isolation ever applied to a country. Malcolm Nance spent a career in naval intelligence around these waters, and his response is a walk across the map: six open Pakistani crossings, Caspian barges from Russia, Azeri cousins trading across the border, and dhows from Dubai Creek that never stopped sailing all war. Squeeze a bazaar civilization, he argues, and the black market simply becomes the open market, because "Logistics is war." His sharpest praise lands on the Joint Chiefs chairman for concluding that more strikes would just waste ordnance breaking rocks without reopening the strait, which Malcolm calls exactly what a real military leader is supposed to do. Malcolm also pushes back on the carrier catapult reversal, arguing the electromagnetic system exists for one reason: launch rate. A carrier's survival depends on getting its entire air wing off the deck before 300 inbound cruise missiles arrive, the new system recovers instantly while steam has to repressurize between launches, and China just installed the same technology on its third carrier because Beijing understood the math.@MalcolmNance

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran to extend the 60-days ceasefire deadline $10 Billion added to the crypto market on this news

Trump says there are no talks going on or scheduled with Iran and that the US blockade remains in place. Oil is +46% ytd. https://t.co/qRqBeX0sgf

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says Iran is "completely collapsing," as the rial fell past 2 million to $1, and the U.S. is set to unveil details of its "economic D-Day" package TODAY. Every time we've heard Iran was "collapsing," it turned out to be overblown... Could Trump be right this time? Source: Truth Social / Writer: Michael

🇺🇸 LATEST: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US has diverted 130 million barrels over the past 14 days. He claims the blockade and "Operation Economic Outcast" will crush Iran's economy. https://t.co/XqG0AGoZSl

🇺🇸🇮🇷 NOW: President Trump calls Iran a "failing nation," saying he doesn't want to meet with them but they're begging to make a deal. https://t.co/aN5n2uK6a1

🇮🇷🇸🇦 Iran: maybe the Middle East should stop outsourcing its security Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf is making Tehran’s pitch for the region: stop relying on outside powers for security and let Muslim nations handle their own neighborhood. It’s classic Iranian foreign policy dressed in brotherhood language. Except the Iran-Saudi thaw means the sales pitch doesn’t sound quite as theoretical anymore. Former rivals are talking. Old alliances are shifting. And governments across the region are increasingly asking what security looks like when Washington isn’t automatically sitting at the head of the table. The Middle East isn’t tearing up the old security map yet. But someone has definitely started drawing on it. Source: @TabzLIVE on TG / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸🇮🇷 If you were wondering why the U.S suddenly attacked Iran after weeks of relative calm, this may explain it: Tehran announced that an oil supertanker transiting the U.S-backed Omani route in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by two naval mines hours ago, setting the ship ablaze and forcing it to stop At present, the claim hasn't been verified, but if true, it raises questions about how accurate U.S statements that the Strait has been cleared of mines are Source: @TabzLIVE / Writer: Ian https://t.co/KcP75hPrE9

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says the US will hit Iran hard. "There will be a response." This is not good for markets.

🇪🇺 NOW: Treasury Secretary Bessent says the EU has joined "Operation Economic Outcast," cutting off Iran's access to global finance to choke its nuclear program, weapons, and terror funding. https://t.co/XZwQWNyJYm

🇺🇸 The most dangerous mistake in a war may be believing you’ve already won. Counterterrorism intelligence expert Malcolm Nance argues that the administration is convincing itself that Iran’s economy has been broken after just three weeks, despite decades of sanctions failing to achieve that. “They are so focused on this crazy Scott Besson idea that he somehow broke the Iranian economy in three weeks. That didn't break for 47 years of full scale sanctions.” That’s the real danger, according to Nance: mistaking the narrative for reality. Because if Washington believes Iran is already defeated, it may underestimate what Tehran can still do. And Iran may not need to escalate. It may just need to wait. @MalcolmNance

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be baiting the U.S. Navy into the Strait of Hormuz Iran's new anti-ship missile may be less about sinking an American carrier today than deciding where the U.S. Navy fights tomorrow. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar argues Tehran is trying to bait American warships deeper into the Strait of Hormuz. The reason is geography. With regional ports damaged, Aguilar says U.S. ships are operating with restricted maneuverability and increasingly difficult supply lines, including reliance on Diego Garcia more than 2,000 miles away. Iran, meanwhile, knows roughly where those ships have to operate. Now it has demonstrated a medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile specifically designed for warships and equipped, Aguilar says, with capabilities intended to defeat shipboard countermeasures. His expectation is that Washington may respond by doing exactly what Tehran wants: pushing naval forces farther into Hormuz to demonstrate U.S. control and strip Iran of its biggest negotiating lever. Aguilar thinks that attempt would fail. And Iran has spent months preparing the neighborhood with missiles, drones, mines and coastal weapons. The U.S. wants to prove it can control the Strait. Iran may be trying to convince it to come closer and prove it.