Daily Report on Gas Fees and Network Health (Issue 13 · Week 30, 2026)

01On-chain Health Assessment

2026-07-23 On-Chain Health Assessment

! The backlog for new Ethereum validators to join the network has worsened, with waiting times exceeding 43 days. The queue length has reached nearly 2.5 million ETH, reflecting tight underlying network resources and declining staking efficiency.

• Weak macroeconomic data has driven a strong rebound in ETH prices. Technical analysis shows a break above the neckline, confirming a double bottom pattern. Options strategies suggest positioning as near-term Put Sellers, indicating an increase in short-term bullish sentiment in the market.
• Funds flowing into AI are shifting from memory chips toward ETH. Since June 25, ETH has risen by 24% while DRAM ETFs have fallen by 38%, resulting in a relative difference of 72%, highlighting ETH’s relative advantage in the AI narrative.

Multiple Scenario Analyses

• Optimistic Scenario: If ETH manages to break through the double bottom pattern and continues to attract AI-related capital, network congestion may worsen due to surging staking demands. However, high gas fees will draw traffic to Layer 2 networks, benefiting tokens like ARB and OP as scaling solutions. ETH prices are likely to rise above the resistance level at the neckline of the double bottom.
• Neutral Scenario: Market sentiment remains neutral (53/100), with ETH fluctuating around $1,933.52. The queue of pending validators gradually shrinks, and gas fees stay high but without significant volatility. Capital shifts back and forth between ETH and major Layer 2 networks, without any clear directional trend.
• Pessimistic Scenario: If macroeconomic improvements fall short of expectations or bearish forces regain momentum, ETH could fall back to test the support level of the double bottom pattern. High staking requirements may lead some retail investors to exit, reducing network activity and lowering gas fees, though this could be accompanied by risks of reduced liquidity.

Key Monitoring Points

1. Track changes in the queue of pending Ethereum validators and fluctuations in gas fees to assess how network congestion affects the migration speed to Layer 2 networks.
2. Observe the relative performance of ETH and DRAM ETFs to determine whether ongoing inflows of AI-related capital continue to support ETH’s valuation.
3. Pay attention to the short-term impact of Pump.fun’s new policies on the liquidity of SOL ecosystem meme coins, as well as their long-term effects on improving liquidity conditions.

02Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-23

Operational Recommendations

1. Liquidity Management in Response to Sudden Increase in Whale Activity Given that whale activity on the blockchain has surged by 60 points, along with the potential entry of large amounts of capital, short-term market volatility may increase. It is recommended to adopt a moderately defensive strategy over the next 2 weeks, avoiding reckless buying during periods of high enthusiasm. If ETH’s current price of $1,933.52 experiences sharp fluctuations and 24-hour trading volume rises significantly to $9.4B, new long positions should be suspended to prioritize protecting existing profits and avoid collapse risks caused by large-scale capital reallocation.

2. Adjusting Leverage Exposure Using Liquidation Data Over $123 million in liquidations occurred across the network within 24 hours, with short-side liquidations accounting for over 77%, indicating strong short-squeeze dynamics in the market. It is advised to execute phased reduction of highly leveraged positions this week. If the implied volatility of BTC or ETH continues to rise and new waves of concentrated closing appear in the derivatives market, leverage levels should be reduced proactively, with portfolio allocation shifted toward spot assets or lower leverage to avoid margin call risks in extreme market conditions.

3. Seizing Trading Opportunities Amid Volatility in Sentiment Indices The market sentiment index saw a surge of 36.0 points from 14.2 to 50.1, followed by a sudden drop of 15.6 points, reflecting extreme instability in market sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a cautious approach with opportunistic buying at lower levels over the next 2 weeks. If the sentiment index falls below 40 again alongside declining whale activity, it could represent a short-term undervaluation opportunity, allowing for phased accumulation of core assets. Conversely, if the sentiment index rapidly rises above 60, caution is needed regarding short-term corrections, to avoid taking heavy positions at peak emotional levels.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Chain-Reaction Liquidations in Derivatives With short-side liquidations currently accounting for over 77%, a reverse market move could trigger chain-reaction liquidations among long holders. Alert threshold: If 24-hour liquidation amounts exceed $123 million again and long-side liquidations surpass 50%, immediate emergency risk control measures must be initiated.

2. Risk of Uncertainty in Whale Capital Flow While whale activity on the blockchain has risen by 60 points, its exact direction remains unclear, which could lead to severe market volatility. Alert threshold: If whale activity stays high for more than 48 hours accompanied by significant deviations of major cryptocurrencies’ prices from their moving averages, vigilance is needed against market manipulation or large-scale selling pressure.

3. Risk of Extreme Fluctuations in Sentiment Indices Sharp swings in the sentiment index over short periods—such as a 36.0-point surge or a 15.6-point drop—indicate fragile market consensus. Alert threshold: If the daily fluctuation range of the sentiment index exceeds 20 points, it is necessary to reassess portfolio risk exposure and avoid counter-trend trading during periods of extreme sentiment.

03Related Reads

1. “以太坊验证者入场队列长度逼近250万ETH”
2. “ETH周涨10.7%确认W底，目标价2240美元”
3. “以太坊相比DRAM ETF的业绩优势扩大至72个百分点”
4. “Pump.fun新政策：抽取20%资金，5分钟内操纵股价后销毁”
5. “24小时内1.23亿美元被清算：BTC/ETH/SNDK的空头们惨遭重创”
6. “BitMine的质押业务收入占比达98.3%，严重依赖第三方服务”