Daily Report on Gas Fees and Network Health (Issue 6 · Week 29, 2026)

01On-chain Health Assessment

According to the on-chain health assessment as of July 16, 2026, the underlying infrastructure of the network is undergoing a structural shift from merely handling transaction settlements to providing institutional-level asset custody and generating compliant returns. BlackRock is developing an underlying operating system that gives it control over on-chain collateral and pricing power, through initiatives such as BUIDL for government bond tokenization and its Aladdin risk management system. Meanwhile, Kraken, in partnership with Upshift, has launched customized vaults aimed at helping institutions earn returns from assets like Bitcoin while staying compliant, thereby mitigating risks associated with smart contracts and liquidity issues. These twin trends—towards an “operating system approach” at the underlying level and “compliant returns for institutions”—indicate that the main drivers behind gas fees and network congestion are shifting from retail speculation to the on-chain allocation of high-net-worth assets.

! Key risk factors: Security vulnerabilities and risks related to hidden funds are on the rise. An Ostium account was stolen, resulting in the loss of approximately $24 million worth of USDC. Hackers converted this funds into ETH and mixed them into Tornado Cash, making it difficult to trace their whereabouts. Such incidents not only undermine trust in the network but may also lead to stricter regulations targeting mixers, increasing compliance costs for on-chain fund transactions.

! Key risk factors: Large-scale movements by Whales raise concerns about short-term selling pressure. A Whale withdrew $57.66 million worth of ETH from Coinbase Prime into three new wallets. Given BitMine’s severe dilution of equity due to massive token issuances and losses exceeding $9 billion, such large transfers could signal adjustments in institutional holdings or liquidation pressures, disrupting short-term network liquidity.

• Positive catalysts: Cross-chain expansion of DeFi protocols boosts network vitality. Aave V4 has been deployed on the Avalanche network, adopting a core-branch architecture and advancing plans to integrate real-world assets. This not only reduces congestion on the Ethereum mainnet but also enhances the diversity and stability of on-chain assets by introducing real-world assets, thereby improving the overall health and efficiency of the network.

Scenario Analysis for the Next 1–4 Weeks

Key Concerns

1. The actual deployment progress and capital inflows for institutional-level products such as BlackRock’s BUIDL and Kraken’s vaults.
2. The subsequent movement of funds stolen from Ostium within Tornado Cash and the response measures taken by regulatory authorities.
3. The details of Aave V4’s plan to integrate real-world assets on Avalanche and its impact on cross-chain liquidity.

02Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-16

Customized Operational Recommendations

1. Monitoring Large-Scale Movements on the ETH Chain and Gradual Position Building

• Key Data Points: On 07-16, a Whale transferred 30,000 ETH (worth approximately $57.66 million) from Coinbase Prime to a new wallet, while Arthur Hayes purchased 1,293 ETH at an average price of $1,933.
• Execution Criteria: If the current ETH price of $1,910.19 can hold above $1,900 supported by a 24-hour trading volume of $11.7B, and there are no large-scale transfers accompanied by concentrated selling, gradual position building is recommended. If the price falls below $1,900 along with funds being moved from Whale addresses to exchanges, suspending further purchases is advised.
• Time Frame: This week

2. Defending Against SOL Resistance Levels and Managing Liquidity

• Key Data Points: SOL is currently trading at $76.79, facing resistance between $79 and $85. Additionally, Solana spot ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $707,000 on 07-16.
• Execution Criteria: If SOL rebounds to $79 but fails to break through the $85 resistance level, and ETF outflows continue, moderate defense strategies should be adopted along with tighter stop-loss settings. If the price breaks above $85 with increased volume and ETFs turn positive, considerable additional investments can be made with a target price of $155.
• Time Frame: Next 2 weeks

3. Structural Opportunities Driven by AVAX Ecosystem Expansion

• Key Data Points: On 07-16, Aave V4 was launched on the Avalanche network to advance the integration of RWA assets, with AVAX currently trading at $6.68.
• Execution Criteria: If AVAX stabilizes around $6.68 and there is significant growth in on-chain TVL following the deployment of Aave V4, gradual investment can be considered to capitalize on the ecosystem’s benefits. If no substantial capital inflows occur after deployment, it’s better to remain cautious.
• Time Frame: This month

Key Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Severe Market Sentiment Fluctuations

• Warning Signs: On 07-16, the market sentiment index experienced extreme fluctuations, dropping by 15.6 points to 36.2 (fearful phase) and rising by 36.0 points to 50.1 (neutral phase). If the sentiment index fluctuates by more than 15 points in a single day again, be alert to potential short-term liquidity crunches or panic-selling.

2. Risks Related to Stablecoin Security and Hidden Funds

• Warning Signs: On 07-16, approximately $24 million in USDC was stolen from an Ostium account and transferred to Tornado Cash. If similar large-scale stablecoin thefts occur followed by a surge in mixers, watch out for potential stablecoin devaluation or exchange withdrawal restrictions due to a loss of trust on the chain.

3. Selling Pressure Caused by High Whale Activity

• Warning Signs: Whale activity on the chain surged by 46–60 points. If this high level of Whale activity persists alongside declining prices of major cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL, it may indicate large-scale capital withdrawals, warranting caution against sharp short-term price drops.

03Related Reads

1. “BlackRock的秘密掌控：从ETF诱饵到区块链底层操作系统”
2. “打破低利率困境：机构定制保险库助力获取DeFi收益”
3. “Ostium被盗的2400万美元稳定币已被转至Tornado Cash”
4. “某Whale从Coinbase Prime提取了3万ETH”
5. “质押获利4600万美元，但因期权损失惨重，股权稀释导致巨额亏损”
6. “Aave V4在Avalanche网络上上线，拓展以太坊之外的业务”
7. “Arthur Hayes出资250万美元购买1293枚ETH”
8. “SOL被困在85美元的阻力位，PumpFun带来的抛压能否被多头化解？”
9. “Solana现货ETF单日净流出70.7万美元”