Daily Report on Gas Fees and Network Health (Issue 11 · Week 30, 2026)

01On-chain Health Assessment

2026-07-21

! The risk of congestion on the Ethereum network is increasing, with validators waiting up to 43 days to join the queue. Although the number of those exiting the queue has dropped to zero, withdrawals still take 7.7 days. The proportion of assets locked in staking accounts stands at 33.49%. Such a high staking ratio combined with long wait times may restrict short-term liquidity and increase volatility in gas fees. ! Institutional holders are under significant unrealized loss pressure, with Strategy suffering losses of $9.05 billion and BitMine facing $8.643 billion in losses. These huge losses could force institutions to reduce their holdings when prices rebound, putting downward pressure on both ETH and BTC.

• Continued buying by institutions and the return of assets from staking provide support at the bottom. Last week, BitMine acquired 7,430 ETH tokens and repurchased 5.5 million shares, bringing its total holdings to 5.77 million tokens, with staking earnings amounting to approximately $247 million. Meanwhile, new addresses withdrew 74,033 ETH tokens and locked them all in staking, involving around $136 million, indicating a significant flow of capital back onto the blockchain.
• Net inflows of funds into ETFs keep momentum strong. ETH ETFs saw a daily net inflow of 9,765 tokens, with a 7-day cumulative total exceeding 53,000 tokens. Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net inflow of $105 million last week, pushing their total assets under management close to $10 billion.

Scenario Analysis (Next 1–4 Weeks)

• Optimistic Scenario: If ETFs continue to see net inflows and institutions like BitMine maintain their buying pace, ETH prices could break through key resistance levels. SOL, driven by Q2’s growth in tokenized asset transactions amounting to $5.8 billion, might help boost overall valuation in the L1 sector.
• Neutral Scenario: ETH is expected to fluctuate around $1,908.85, adjusting to the gas fee volatility caused by validator queue congestion. BTC will likely trade within a narrow range of $63,000 to $65,000, as the market waits for guidance from macroeconomic data, with funds shifting between ETH and BTC.
• Pessimistic Scenario: If institutional losses lead to large-scale selling, ETH could test key support levels. Although OKX’s reserve ratio is already at 100%, further deterioration in market sentiment to fear levels could trigger cascading liquidations.

Key Monitoring Points

1. Track whether the waiting time for validators to join the Ethereum network decreases to assess progress in reducing congestion.
2. Monitor changes in holdings by BitMine and Strategy, being vigilant against forced selling due to unrealized losses.
3. Observe the sustainability of net inflows into ETH ETFs to gauge the strength of institutional support for prices.

02Operation Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-21

Operational Recommendations

1. Defensive Allocation Based on Extreme Market Sentiment and Whale Movements (Time Frame: This Week) The current market sentiment index stands at 41/100, indicating a fearful mood, with the index dropping sharply from 51.8 to 36.2 recently. Meanwhile, whale activity on the blockchain has surged by 46 points to 60, suggesting that large amounts of capital are entering the market at lower prices. It is recommended to adopt a moderately defensive strategy to avoid reckless buying during periods of panic. If the support level below the current ETH price of $1,908.85 remains intact and whale activity stays high, investors can consider building positions in phases to take advantage of undervalued assets caused by emotional distress. However, it is crucial to strictly control the amount invested each time to prevent further deterioration in market sentiment.

2. Momentum Following Strategy Based on ETF Capital Flows (Time Frame: Next 2 Weeks) Ethereum spot ETFs saw $105 million in net inflows last week, with ETHA leading the way with $135 million in inflows, reflecting strong institutional interest in ETH. Investors should pay attention to how quickly ETH prices respond to these ETF inflows. If the 24-hour trading volume of ETH remains above $10.7B and the price breaks through short-term resistance levels, increasing holdings slightly could be considered to capture momentum gains. Conversely, if ETF inflows shrink significantly or turn into outflows, gradually reducing positions is advised to lock in profits and avoid price corrections due to weakened financial support.

3. Long-Term Allocation Optimization Based on Staking Return Signals (Time Frame: This Month) New addresses withdrew 74,033 ETH from Gemini and staked them in full, involving approximately $136 million. This indicates that substantial funds are flowing back from exchanges to the blockchain for staking. Such behavior is often seen as a signal of long-term holding. Investors should review their portfolio structure; if they hold large amounts of spot ETH with no immediate trading plans, they may consider converting some of their holdings into staked assets to boost returns. The timing of such actions should take network health into account. If the annualized staking yield remains stable and there are no significant network congestion risks, staking operations can be carried out steadily to improve long-term returns.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Severe Market Volatility The market sentiment index has experienced significant fluctuations recently, rising from 14.2 to 50.1 or dropping sharply from 51.8 to 36.2. Such extreme swings can cause prices to deviate from fundamental values in the short term.

   • Alert Triggers: If the sentiment index fluctuates by more than 15 points within 24 hours, or remains in the extremely fearful (<20) or extremely greedy (>80) range for two consecutive days, caution is needed regarding irrational selling or bubble bursts. It is recommended to pause new investments and tighten stop-loss levels.

2. Selling Pressure from Institutional Losses Despite ongoing increases in institutional holdings, there is still pressure due to Strategy’s $9.05 billion in losses and BitMine’s $8.643 billion in losses. If the market continues to decline, institutions may be forced to close positions to alleviate liquidity pressures.

   • Alert Triggers: If ETH prices fall below key support levels accompanied by a significant reduction in institutional holdings (e.g., weekly purchase volumes turning negative), be wary of a chain reaction of sell-offs. It is advisable to reduce leverage in advance and increase cash reserves.

3. Network Congestion and Staking Efficiency Risks The waiting time for Ethereum validators to join the network is as long as 43 days, and although the exit queue is now empty, withdrawals still take 7.7 days. Network congestion can lead to soaring Gas fees, affecting transaction efficiency and the actual amount of earnings from staking.

   • Alert Triggers: If average Gas fees remain more than 20% above historical averages, or if the waiting time for validators to join increases further to over 50 days, it is necessary to reassess the liquidity costs associated with staking strategies to avoid excessive opportunity costs resulting from prolonged locked-up funds.

03Related Reads

1. “Waiting 43 Days to Join Ethereum Validators Queue; Exit Queue Times Have Been Reduced to Zero”
2. “Strategy Suffers $9.05 Billion in Floating Losses, BitMine Faces $8.643 Billion in Losses”
3. “BitMine Bought 7,430 ETH and Repurchased 5.5 Million Shares Last Week”
4. “New Wallets Withdrawed 74,000 ETH from Gemini and Pledged Them All”
5. “Ethereum ETFs Saw $9,765 in Net Inflows on a Single Day; Bitcoin ETFs Saw $1,985 in Inflows”
6. “Ethereum Spot ETFs Had $105 Million in Net Inflows Last Week”
7. “Solana’s Q2 Tokenized Asset Trading Volume Reached $5.8 Billion”
8. “BTC Fluctuated Within a Narrow Range of $63,000 to $65,000”
9. “OKX’s 45th PoR Showed 100% Reserve Coverage for BTC and Other Assets”