ETH Ecosystem Weekly Report (Issue 10 · Week 28, 2026)

01Market Review

ETH maintained an upward trend with fluctuations this week, and its weekly gain confirmed the dominance of bulls in the short term.

With the reference date set at 2026-07-09, the current price of ETH is $1,726.22 (reflecting the current market pricing level). The 7-day increase was +7.8% (indicating strong overall momentum during the week and a bullish bias in the short term), while the 24-hour decline was -1.7% (showing pressure for profit-taking within a single day). The price volatility of ETH this week was influenced by both macroeconomic sentiment and on-chain capital flows. On July 4th, ETH led the gains by nearly 2% (indicating signs of capital returning to the market). It then experienced slight pullbacks and consolidation from July 5th to July 8th, with ETH falling to $1,738 on July 8th (reflecting a cautiously neutral market sentiment). Although the 24-hour trading volume reached as high as $9.1B (indicating active market activity and ample liquidity), the price failed to sustainably break above previous highs, suggesting continued selling pressure above.

Significant sectoral divergence was observed, with DeFi and DEX performing well, while AI and GameFi faced downward pressure.

There was clear divergence among different sectors within the ETH ecosystem this week. The DeFi and DEX sectors led the gains multiple times, with increases of over 4% on July 4th (indicating a rebound in demand for decentralized trading and lending services). On July 6th, DeFi and DEX continued to lead the gains (showing that funds favored low-risk, high-return on-chain infrastructure). In contrast, the AI and GameFi sectors performed poorly, with declines of over 5% on July 8th (reflecting capital withdrawal from high-risk sectors in a volatile market). On July 7th, DEX managed to rise by 1.2% against the trend (indicating that decentralized exchanges have a certain degree of resilience during market fluctuations), while AI/Agent and GameFi sectors saw declines of over 4% (indicating a shift of funds from speculative sectors to core infrastructure).

Whale movements and institutional capital reallocation intensified market volatility, with increased willingness to hold assets on-chain.

The activities of Whales and institutional funds became key factors influencing the market this week. On July 5th, Ethereum withdrawals hit a three-year high (indicating increased willingness to hold assets on-chain and more long-term optimists). Binance’s net outflow for the week surged to 123 million dollars (showing reduced holdings at exchanges and less selling pressure). However, on July 7th, Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of tokens in one day (raising concerns about liquidity and potentially affecting short-term market liquidity). MSTR redeemed $216 million as its mNAV fell below 1 (indicating that institutional funds were dynamically reallocating their assets to avoid short-term risks). On July 8th, Whale sales and regulatory uncertainties suppressed any short-term rebounds (indicating that the market was in a phase of consolidation with intensified buying and selling battles).

• Key focus points for next week: • Whether ETH can hold steady above the $1,726 support level and break through short-term resistance will depend on changes in trading volume and Whale movements. • Progress on regulatory policies such as the CLARITY法案以及ETF资金的流向，都可能对市场情绪产生重大影响。

02ETH Collateralization and Liquidity

July 9, 2026, serves as the data benchmark date. The ETH staking and liquidity ecosystem is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from technical restructuring to institutional leadership. On July 7, Vitalik Buterin unveiled a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, covering second-level transaction confirmation and post-quantum security, aiming to solidify ETH’s role as an institutional settlement layer. Meanwhile, on July 3, the Ethereum Foundation separated its commercial functions, with giants such as Bitmine investing to establish Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three key power centers that marked a shift in ecosystem control to institutional capital. In terms of liquidity infrastructure, Open USD brought together 150 major players on July 7 to build a shared infrastructure, seeking to reshape the stablecoin ecosystem and directly challenge the independent issuance models of Circle and Tether. In the derivatives space, Ondo launched a Perp DEX on July 7 that integrates real-world assets with derivatives, supporting up to 20x leverage for U.S. stock trading, thereby redefining the risk dynamics in the convergence of traditional finance and cryptography. Although at the macro level, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $26 million in a single day on July 8, reflecting rising institutional risk-aversion, the ETH ecosystem continues to strengthen its position as a core hub in global asset tokenization through underlying technology upgrades and improved compliance infrastructure.

03Dynamics of the L2 ecosystem

Reference date: 2026-07-09

The Ethereum L2 ecosystem has shown significant divergence in terms of technical restructuring and paths toward institutional adoption. On 07-07, Vitalik Buterin released a four-year upgrade roadmap for Lean Ethereum, focusing on second-level transaction confirmation and post-quantum security to strengthen ETH’s position as an institutional settlement layer. Meanwhile, on 07-03, the Ethereum Foundation separated its commercial functions, with giants such as Bitmine investing to establish Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating new centers of power that marked a shift toward capital-driven governance in the ecosystem.

At the application level, there have been key breakthroughs in the RWA space. On 07-07, Ondo launched Perp DEX, integrating RWA with derivatives and supporting up to 20x leverage for U.S. stock futures, thereby reshaping the risk dynamics between traditional finance and the crypto market. In terms of stablecoin infrastructure, Open USD gathered 150 major companies on 07-07 to build a shared infrastructure, aiming to challenge the independent issuance models of Circle and Tether. Additionally, Robinhood launched its own custom blockchain on 07-01, integrating stock tokens and RWA assets and attracting Uniswap to it, demonstrating a path for traditional brokers to transform into all-in-one financial platforms.

04DeFi data

Ethereum leads among major public blockchains with a TVL of $38.91B, showing a 7-day growth rate of +4.5%, while the DEX liquidity pool size reaches $1600M. Base and Tron also perform strongly, with TVLs of $4.34B and $4.73B respectively, both experiencing 7-day increases of +4.5% or more. Notably, the Tron DEX scale is only $55M, indicating that its liquidity is concentrated in stablecoins. Solana has a TVL of $4.92B and a DEX scale of $2485M, outperforming Ethereum significantly. As an emerging L1, Monad boasts a TVL of $500M and a 7-day surge of +38.8%, with a DEX scale of $57M, reflecting early capital inflows. Bitcoin’s TVL is $3.44B, with a 7-day decline of -12.0%, indicating pressure on its liquidity. The current price of ETH is $1,726.22, and its liquidity rating is only 30, suggesting high transaction friction costs on the chain. Ondo has introduced a Perp DEX that supports 20x leverage, reshaping the liquidity structure for RWA derivatives. Arbitrage opportunities exist in the price gap between Solana’s high DEX depth and Ethereum’s low liquidity rating, as well as in the early liquidity premium driven by Monad’s rapid growth.

05Derivatives Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The total settlement amount across the entire market over the past 24 hours reached $119,436,786.96333587, with long-position settlements accounting for 75.4% and short-position settlements accounting for 24.6%, indicating that the leverage risk for long positions is significantly higher than that for short positions. Specifically, for LTC, the total 24-hour settlement amount was 100,382.34296000001, of which 86,197.45119 were long-position settlements and 14,184.89177 were short-position settlements, showing intense competition between long and short sides. For WIF, the total settlement amount was 87,077.88667842, with 68,999.58628042 being long-position settlements and 18,078.300398 being short-position settlements, also reflecting a situation dominated by long positions leading to margin calls. The total settlement amount for FOGO was 36,679.3395878, almost entirely consisting of long-position settlements at 36,674.2883878, with only 5.0512 in short-position settlements, indicating extreme congestion in long-position leverage for this asset. For PLAY, the total settlement amount was 36,362.45039, with 29,928.7896304 being long-position settlements and 6,433.6607596 being short-position settlements, showing large-scale margin calls on both sides. CATI had a total settlement amount of 31,361.510532099997, with 30,983.2607129 as long-position settlements and 378.2498192 as short-position settlements, indicating concentrated risk on the long side. PARTI’s total settlement amount was 17,434.604827400002, with 17,318.3563274 as long-position settlements and 116.2485 as short-position settlements, revealing obvious exposure to long-position leverage. USAR’s total settlement amount was 13,875.9211642, all of which were long-position settlements, with no records of short-position margin calls. HUMA had a total settlement amount of 3,921.3052644, with 3,817.5386208 as long-position settlements and 103.7666436 as short-position settlements, giving a slight advantage to long-position risks. AIXBT’s total settlement amount was 3,333.930579, with 1,972.630575 as long-position settlements and 1,361.300004 as short-position settlements, showing a relatively balanced distribution between long and short sides. PROM’s total settlement amount was 1,333.12289144, with 1,315.49609144 as long-position settlements and 17.6268 as short-position settlements, indicating concentrated risk on the long side. NVO’s total settlement amount was 1,044.5977217, all of which were long-position settlements. LSK had a total settlement amount of 827.5493, with 771.3085 as long-position settlements and 56.2408 as short-position settlements, suggesting slightly higher long-position risks. BB’s total settlement amount was 556.5003800000001, with 405.639355 as long-position settlements and 150.861025 as short-position settlements, giving an advantage to long-position risks. RIVN’s total settlement amount was 5,362.7646358, all of which were long-position settlements. JPM’s total settlement amount was 5,297.0291606, with 5,099.2611606 as long-position settlements and 197.768 as short-position settlements, indicating concentrated risk on the long side. JOE’s total settlement amount was 4,464.1435924, all of which were long-position settlements. WAXP’s total settlement amount was 322.4328563, all of which were long-position settlements. BMNR’s total settlement amount was 285.3984, all of which were long-position settlements. AT’s total settlement amount was 192.1006, all of which were long-position settlements. DOLO’s total settlement amount was 7.94581, all of which were long-position settlements.

The current market sentiment index is 45/100, indicating a neutral level. However, the high proportion of long-position settlements suggests that leveraged long holders are more vulnerable to price fluctuations. Systemic risk exposure is primarily concentrated on the long side, with 75.4% of settlements indicating that the overall market leverage trend is bullish. Any price correction could trigger a chain reaction of margin calls among long holders. High settlement amounts for assets such as LTC, WIF, and FOGO show that these assets are prone to leverage-related risks, and investors should be vigilant about the settlement risks posed by their high volatility.

06Developer Events

As of 2026-07-09, activities among developers in the ETH ecosystem have shown a shift from technical restructuring at the foundational level to institutionalized governance. On 07-07, Vitalik Buterin released a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, focusing on second-level transaction confirmation and post-quantum security, with the aim of strengthening ETH’s position as an institutional settlement layer through technological reforms. Meanwhile, significant changes have taken place in the governance structure. On 07-03, the Ethereum Foundation separated its commercial functions, and companies like Bitmine invested in establishing Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional to create new centers of power, signaling a shift in the commercial momentum of the ecosystem toward institutional capital. At the application layer, compliance and mergers & acquisitions have become key concerns for developers. Rising compliance costs have led to an increase in merger activity, putting pressure on startups within this ecosystem. The ETH ecosystem strength index stands at 5.0, indicating that the sector’s popularity is at a neutral level, and developers need to find a new balance between technological upgrades and institutional dynamics.

07Emotions and Capital

The market sentiment index remained stable within the neutral range of 45/100 from 07:09:02:38 to 07:09:02:48, indicating an overall calm atmosphere. Despite previous sharp fluctuations where the sentiment index surged from 14.2 to 50.1 points—up by 36.0 points—followed by a sudden drop from 51.8 to 36.2 points—down by 15.6 points—the market has now returned to a neutral balance. In terms of capital flow, there were significant fluctuations in the activity levels on Whale chains, with two notable spikes of 60 points and 46 points respectively, suggesting that large amounts of capital are actively entering the market. Meanwhile, the consensus among KOLs shifted sharply, with the bullish-bear gap expanding by 85.0 percentage points; currently, bulls account for 70% while bears make up only 15%, reflecting a strongly optimistic attitude among opinion leaders toward future market trends. The mainstream discussions focus on hot topics such as losses incurred by TRUMP token holders, financing for AI computing infrastructure, the implementation of stablecoin regulatory frameworks, Chainlink’s cross-chain integration, and the surge in Solana meme coins, highlighting the complex balance between macro-regulation and advancements in ecosystem technologies.

08Outlook and Risks

Neutral outlook: The current price of ETH is $1,726.22, with a 7-day increase of +7.8%, but a 24-hour decline of -1.7%, indicating weakening short-term momentum. ! Risk warning: If the CLARITY bill isn’t passed before the August recess, the odds of its approval this year drop sharply to 40%, with regulatory uncertainty weighing on valuations.

• Positive signals: Vanguard has abandoned its resistance to cryptocurrencies and is urgently recruiting a head for digital assets to focus on tokenization, signaling a shift in traditional asset management strategies.

Compared to the previous period, ETH’s weekly gain expanded from +7.3% to +7.8%, suggesting an ongoing bullish trend. However, the 24-hour decline narrowed from -2.4% to -1.7%, indicating some relief in selling pressure. Market sentiment remains neutral (45/100), while BTC’s dominance at 55.9% shows that funds still prefer safe-haven assets. Although the DeFi TVL has reached $57.7B, providing underlying support, daily net outflows of $26M from BTC ETFs and whale sales have increased volatility, limiting short-term rebounds due to macroeconomic factors.

Key observations:

1. Accelerated institutional adoption: Asset management giants like Vanguard are shifting toward tokenization, which is likely to boost ETH’s role as a settlement layer in the long term, with high confidence.
2. Urgent regulatory deadline: With only 25 days left before the August 10 recess, failure to pass the CLARITY bill could lead to continued outflows of ETF funds, given high likelihood of this outcome.
3. Technical consolidation: ETH’s overall rating is 64, with a technical score of 88 but low liquidity at 30, indicating a lack of short-term breakout momentum, moderate confidence level.

Major risk factors:

• Regulatory policy risks: If the CLARITY bill isn’t passed by August 10, the chances of approval this year drop to 40%, potentially triggering panic selling in the market.
• Liquidity shocks: Whales moving assets to exchanges and Tether burning 2.5 billion USDT have raised concerns about liquidity, exacerbating short-term volatility.
• Macroeconomic uncertainties: Weak employment data alongside inflation worries, along with unclear policies from the Federal Reserve, affect the valuation of risk assets.

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