Weekly Derivatives Market Report (Issue 10 · Week 28, 2026)

01Overview of the Derivatives Market

On 2026-07-09, the derivatives market exhibited a clear bullish dominance, with leverage-driven sentiment diverging from spot price corrections. The BTC funding rate was 0.0024%, while both ETH and SOL had rates of 0.0025%. Positive funding rates indicate that bulls need to pay a fee to maintain their positions, suggesting strong bullish expectations in the market. In terms of open interest, BTC’s OI reached $45.23B, ETH’s was $23.69B, and SOL’s was $5.25B. High open interest combined with positive funding rates points to an accumulation of leveraged bulls. The ratio of long to short accounts further confirmed this trend: for BTC, it was 64.1% long and 35.9% short; for ETH, it was 67.3% long and 32.7% short; for SOL, it was as high as 68.7% long and 31.3% short, indicating that both retail investors and institutions tend to be bullish. Although both BTC’s current price of $61,665.00 and ETH’s current price of $1,722.95 saw declines over 24 hours, there were no signs of large-scale deleveraging in the derivatives market. Instead, high funding rates and high OI kept bullish positions intact, showing that the market still possesses strong speculative resilience amid these corrections. However, caution is needed regarding the risk of a bearish stampede if prices continue to fall.

02Fund Rate and Position Analysis

Benchmark date: 2026-07-09

The funding rate for BTC was 0.0024%, while that for ETH and SOL was both 0.0025%. The rates of these three assets are quite similar and remain positive, indicating that bulls need to continuously pay fees to hold their positions. The market as a whole exhibits a mild bullish premium structure. Although the absolute values of the rates are low and there are no signs of extreme overheating, the persistent positive rates suggest that leveraged bulls hold a dominant position, putting bearish parties under continuous financial pressure.

In terms of holding volume, BTC tops the list with $45.23B, followed by ETH at $23.69B, and SOL at $5.25B. The holding volumes of BTC and ETH are significantly higher than that of SOL, reflecting that institutions and large funds tend to use derivatives in mainstream assets. Although SOL has a smaller total holding volume, its funding rate is on par with that of mainstream cryptocurrencies, suggesting strong activity and sentiment alignment in its derivatives market.

The ratio of long to short accounts further confirms a bullish market sentiment. For BTC, the ratio is 64.1% long/35.9% short; for ETH, it is 67.3% long/32.7%; for SOL, it is even higher at 68.7% long/31.3%. SOL has the highest proportion of long positions, indicating that it enjoys stronger favor among speculative funds in the current market environment. Overall, the long-to-short ratios of these three mainstream cryptocurrencies are significantly skewed in favor of bulls. Combined with the positive funding rates, market sentiment tends to be bullish, but caution is needed regarding potential pullback risks due to the high proportion of long positions.

03Liquidation and Leverage Risks

As of 2026-07-09, the total liquidation amount across the entire market over the past 24 hours reached $119,814,243.24167058, with long positions accounting for 75.5% of liquidations and short positions accounting for 24.5%. Leverage risks showed a significant tendency toward long-position overcrowding, as most cryptocurrencies experienced one-sided liquidations on the long side—such as RIVN with $5,362.7646358 in liquidations, WAXP with $322.4328563, and NVO with $1,044.5977217—while short-position liquidations were all 0.0. Some highly volatile cryptocurrencies saw liquidations on both long and short sides; for example, PLAY had a total liquidation of $36,362.45039, of which $29,928.7896304 came from long positions and $6,433.6607596 from short positions. LTC had a relatively large liquidation volume of $100,382.34296000001, with $86,197.45119 coming from long positions and $14,184.89177 from short positions. WIF had a total liquidation of $87,113.14417841999, with $69,034.84378042 from long positions and $18,078.300398 from short positions. FOGO had a total liquidation of $36,679.3395878, with $36,674.2883878 from long positions and $5.0512 from short positions. USAR saw long-position liquidations of $13,875.9211642, with no short-position liquidations. PARTI had a total liquidation of $17,434.604827400002, with $17,318.3563274 from long positions and $116.2485 from short positions. CATI had a total liquidation of $31,361.510532099997, with $30,983.2607129 from long positions and $378.2498192 from short positions. AIXBT had a total liquidation of $3,333.930579, with $1,972.630575 from long positions and $1,361.300004 from short positions. HUMA had a total liquidation of $3,916.6934754, with $3,812.9268318 from long positions and $103.7666436 from short positions. PROM had a total liquidation of $1,333.12289144, with $1,315.49609144 from long positions and $17.6268 from short positions. JPM had a total liquidation of $5,297.0291606, with $5,099.2611606 from long positions and $197.768 from short positions. LSK had a total liquidation of $827.5493, with $771.3085 from long positions and $56.2408 from short positions. BB had a total liquidation of $556.5003800000001, with $405.639355 from long positions and $150.861025 from short positions. BMNR had long-position liquidations of $285.3984, with no short-position liquidations. JOE had long-position liquidations of $4,464.1435924, with no short-position liquidations. AT had long-position liquidations of $192.1006, with no short-position liquidations. DOLO had long-position liquidations of $7.94581, with no short-position liquidations. Systemic risk exposure was concentrated in the excessive leverage of long positions, where even slight price corrections triggered large-scale forced liquidations of long positions, while short positions remained relatively stable. The market as a whole was in a phase of high-leverage long-position reduction.

04Emotions and Capital Flows

The market sentiment index remains stable at 45/100, indicating a generally neutral trend. The dominant discourse centers on regulatory battles and ecosystem fragmentation, with Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizing the Clear Act for potentially enabling sanctions evasion and raising compliance concerns. In terms of capital flows, holders of TRUMP tokens have suffered heavy losses, signaling the emergence of risks associated with political-themed meme coins. Meanwhile, funding for AI computing infrastructure, corporate transformations in the mining sector, and the accelerated implementation of global stablecoin regulatory frameworks have become key topics, reflecting institutional investment shifts toward infrastructure and compliant assets. The acceleration of Chainlink’s cross-chain integrations and the activity in the Solana ecosystem driven by meme coins indicate that on-chain liquidity continues to concentrate in specific areas. Geopolitically, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer Malcolm Nance noted that the U.S. has already depleted some of its strategic resources, hinting at ongoing external uncertainties.

05Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Neutral Outlook: The current price of BTC is $61,665.00, while ETH is trading at $1,722.95. Both assets have seen declines of nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, but their gains over the past 7 days were +2.6% and +7.6% respectively, indicating that short-term corrections have not undermined the medium-term bullish trend.

! Risk Warning: Strategy has broken its “never sell crypto” principle by obtaining authorization to sell $1.25 billion worth of assets, with the actual scale of sales potentially exceeding $3 billion, posing a significant supply shock.

• Positive Signals: Vanguard’s urgent recruitment of a head for digital assets signals a strategic shift by traditional asset management giants, which is beneficial in the long term for industry compliance and capital inflows.

Compared to the previous period, the market has shifted from a purely bullish sentiment to genuine concerns about institutional selling pressure. In the last period, the derivatives market showed strong bullish characteristics, with leverage-driven sentiment diverging from spot price fluctuations. This time, the focus must be on addressing the liquidity pressures brought about by Strategy’s monetization efforts.

Key Observations

1. Supply Shock vs. Price Support: Strategy has launched a Bitcoin monetization plan to address the dividend pressures from STRC preferred stocks. Its transformation into an actively managed hedge fund implies that selling pressure will become more regular. Although BTC is still trading at $61,665.00, the exclusion mechanism allowing sales of an additional $216 million beyond the $1.25 billion quota suggests that the actual supply pressure is greater than what the figures indicate. Confidence Level: High.
2. Structural Benefits from Traditional Finance Entry: Vanguard’s shift from rejecting cryptocurrencies to investing in tokenization, along with Coinbase’s collaboration with 140 institutions to launch OUSD as a competitor to USDT, indicates that traditional financial infrastructure is being restructured. Such institutional backing provides a long-term value anchor for ETH, currently trading at $1,722.95, despite short-term volatility driven by market sentiment. Confidence Level: Medium-High.
3. Uncertainty in Political Regulation: The conflict of interest surrounding Trump family’s $140 million in crypto gains, along with senatorial proposals to ban officials from issuing tokens, could lead to stricter regulations. Additionally, doubts about the Treasury Department’s authority have stalled strategic reserve programs, with the Commerce Department possibly taking over regulation—making the policy path unclear. Confidence Level: Medium.

Scenario Analysis

Major Risk Factors

1. Institutional Selling Pressure: Strategy’s actual selling volume could exceed $3 billion, disrupting market supply and demand balance and causing sharp price drops.
2. Regulatory Policy Risks: Senatorial proposals to ban officials from issuing tokens and investigations into Trump family’s conflicts of interest may trigger regulatory fears regarding politically connected tokens and the entire industry.
3. Stablecoin Competition Risks: Coinbase’s partnership with major firms to launch OUSD as a competitor to USDT, along with Circle’s stock price plunging by 16%, could lead to reshuffling of interests in the stablecoin sector and cause short-term market turmoil.

06Related Reads

1. “140 million in crypto profits deemed legal, yet fierce conflicts erupt within the family”
2. “Trump’s Bitcoin reserves face hurdles: Treasury’s authority in question, Commerce Department emerges as candidate”
3. “Battle over ownership of 390,000 dormant BTCs: Digital trade associations resist New York state lawsuit”
4. “Secrets behind Strategy’s coin sales: 1.25 billion ceiling is just the tip of the iceberg”
5. “Asset management giants rush to hire new leaders: From rejecting crypto to pursuing tokenization”
6. “Annual dividends of 1.26 billion: Strategy breaks its ‘never sell coins’ rule and initiates monetization”
7. “Coinbase teams up with 140 giants to create OUSD; Circle’s stock plummets 16% in the ensuing battle”
8. “Senator proposes banning officials from issuing coins, targeting Trump family’s 140 million in profits”