Weekly Derivatives Market Report (Issue 9 · Week 28, 2026)

01Overview of the Derivatives Market

On 2026-07-09, the derivatives market exhibited a clear bullish dominance, with leverage sentiment diverging from spot price fluctuations. The funding rates for BTC, ETH, and SOL all remained in the range of 0.0037%-0.0038%. Positive funding rates indicate that bulls need to pay a premium to bears, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market.

In terms of open interest, BTC’s open interest reached $45.69B, ETH’s was $23.84B, and SOL’s was $5.34B. Such substantial levels of open interest show significant capital involvement in these assets. The ratio of long to short accounts further confirms the bullish advantage—BTC had a ratio of 63.7% long to 36.3% short, ETH was 67.1% long to 32.9%, and SOL even reached 68.8% long to 31.2%. Both retail investors and institutions tend to take bullish positions.

Although the spot prices of BTC at $62,174.00 and ETH at $1,739.71 dropped by 2.3% over 24 hours, there were no signs of large-scale deleveraging in the derivatives market. Instead, high funding rates helped sustain bullish positions. The total liquidation amount over the past 24 hours amounted to $146,548,510.83, with bulls accounting for 83.6% of liquidations and bears only 16.4%. This suggests that during the downward trend, bullish stop-loss orders drove market volatility, yet the overall leverage structure still favored bullish positions.

02Funding Rate and Position Analysis

Benchmark date: 2026-07-09

The funding rate for BTC was 0.0038%, while that for ETH and SOL was both 0.0037%. The low positive values for these three major assets indicate that the cost for long positions remains manageable, with no signs of extreme speculative overheating in the market. In terms of holding amounts, BTC led with $45.69B, followed by ETH at $23.84B and SOL at $5.34B. The concentration of funds tends toward these top assets, reflecting institutional preference for highly liquid assets in volatile markets. The ratio of long to short accounts showed that BTC had 63.7% long positions, ETH had 67.1%, and SOL even reached 68.8%, all indicating a clear dominance of long positions. Although the funding rates are moderate, SOL’s higher long-to-short ratio suggests relatively stronger speculative sentiment, warranting caution against short-term profit-taking risks. BTC and ETH, on the other hand, have relatively stable holding levels and sentiment patterns, helping to sustain market resilience amid fluctuations.

03Liquidation and Leverage Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The cumulative liquidation volume across the entire market in the past 24 hours reached $146,548,510.82555717, with long positions accounting for as high as 83.6% of total liquidations, while short positions made up only 16.4%. This indicates that downward pressure in the market is primarily concentrated among long-position leveraged holdings. Looking at specific cryptocurrencies, WIF led in terms of total liquidation volume at 192,280.34345881, of which 186,032.2947576 came from long-position liquidations and 6,248.04870121 from short-position liquidations, reflecting an influx of stop-loss orders by long holders amid severe price volatility. LTC also faced significant long-position liquidation pressure, with a total liquidation volume of 131,765.03409, of which 125,180.39831 was due to long positions and 6,584.63578 to short positions.

Among other highly volatile assets, CATI had a total liquidation volume of 50,384.9368598, with 50,006.6870406 coming from long-position liquidations and 378.2498192 from short positions. PLAY’s total liquidation volume was 50,632.2322309, consisting of 43,982.1672921 from long positions and 6,650.0649388 from short positions. FOGO had a total liquidation volume of 39,891.023527800004, almost entirely from long-position liquidations at 39,885.9723278. USAR recorded pure long-position liquidations amounting to 13,875.9211642, RIVN at 5,362.7646358, and JPM at 5,297.0291606 (including 197.768 in short-position liquidations).

The current market leverage structure is extremely skewed toward long positions, with 83.6% of liquidations originating from long sides. This suggests severe accumulation of leverage on the long side earlier on, which could easily lead to cascading margin calls if prices decline. Systemic risk exposure is mainly concentrated in highly volatile small-cap and meme cryptocurrencies such as WIF, CATI, and FOGO, where their share of liquidations is much higher than that of mainstream cryptocurrencies. This indicates that speculative leverage is focused on these high-beta assets. Investors should be cautious about the accelerated deleveraging risk of such assets during downward trends and avoid using excessive high-leverage positions near key support levels.

04Emotions and Capital Flows

The current market sentiment index remains stable at 45/100, indicating a neutral outlook, with no significant force yet emerging from either the bulls or bears. The dominant narratives show signs of diversification, with focus on macro-regulation and advancements in ecological technologies. The accelerated implementation of global regulatory frameworks for stablecoins has become a key issue, while financing for AI computing infrastructure and transformation paths for mining companies are also attracting attention. At the application level, Chainlink’s cross-chain integrations are speeding up ecosystem connectivity, and the surge in meme coins has significantly boosted activity within the Solana ecosystem. It is worth noting that holders of TRUMP tokens are facing substantial losses, highlighting the high volatility risks associated with political-themed assets. Regarding expert opinions, @cryptorover argued that Ethereum is currently in the second least-overvalued range in history, suggesting potential bullish prospects; however, most other opinion leaders focused on corporate AI adoption frameworks and social issues, offering limited guidance for short-term market trends. Overall, capital flows are driven by regulatory expectations and technological developments, as the market seeks new equilibrium points amid fluctuations.

05Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Neutral Outlook: The current price of BTC is $62,174.00, with a 24-hour decline of -2.3% and a 7-day increase of +3.7%. While short-term volatility has increased, the weekly trend still shows positive momentum. The current price of ETH is $1,739.71, showing steady performance over the same period, with a 7-day gain of +7.3%, indicating that the Ethereum ecosystem possesses relative resilience amid institutional interest.

• Positive Signals: Vanguard has broken its long-standing resistance to cryptocurrencies by urgently hiring a head for digital assets to focus on tokenization and stablecoins, signaling a significant strategic shift from traditional asset managers. Vitalik Buterin has unveiled a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, covering second-level confirmation and post-quantum security, providing underlying support for ETH’s long-term technical value.

! Risk Warnings: Strategy has broken its “never sell crypto” rule, receiving approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of assets. By using accounting tricks, it managed to exclude $216 million worth of sales from this quota, resulting in an actual selling volume of over $3 billion, which significantly increases short-term supply pressure. The $140 million in crypto gains by the Trump family has raised concerns about political contributions and conflicts of interest, with senators proposing a ban on elected officials from issuing tokens, thereby increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Key Observations

1. Institutional Supply Pressure vs. Demand Support Strategy’s monetization plan has led to an actual selling volume of over $3 billion, putting direct pressure on BTC prices. However, the entry of giants like Vanguard into tokenization efforts may generate additional demand in the medium to long term.

   • Trend Prediction: Short-term pressure, with consolidation and bottom-building in the medium term.
   • Confidence Level: Medium-High (supply data is clear, while demand is based on projections).

2. Regulatory Policy Battles Trump’s efforts to establish a strategic reserve have faced obstacles from various departments, with the Treasury Department’s authority under question. The Commerce Department may take over regulation, and Congress plans to purchase millions of coins over five years. Meanwhile, senators are proposing a ban on elected officials from issuing meme coins, targeting the profits of the Trump family.

   • Trend Prediction: Slower implementation of policies, with market sentiment affected by political developments.
   • Confidence Level: Medium (legislative processes are subject to change).

3. Restructuring of the Ethereum Ecosystem The Ethereum Foundation is shifting away from commercial functions, with giants like Bitmine investing to establish Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three key entities. Vitalik’s four-year roadmap emphasizes technological restructuring.

   • Trend Prediction: Governance power in the ecosystem will concentrate among institutions, and technological upgrades will benefit long-term valuation.
   • Confidence Level: High (roadmap and capital movements are clear).

Scenario Analysis

Major Risk Factors

1. Supply-Side Shock: Strategy’s actual selling volume of over $3 billion far exceeds the approved $1.25 billion, potentially causing severe short-term price fluctuations.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: Political conflicts arising from the Trump family’s crypto gains, along with senators’ proposals to ban officials from issuing tokens, could lead to stricter regulations.
3. Technical Restructuring Risks: Ethereum’s Lean Ethereum upgrade involves changes to the underlying architecture. If implemented poorly, it may undermine institutional settlement plans.

06Related Reads

1. “140 million in crypto profits deemed legal, yet fierce conflict erupts within family”
2. “Trump’s Bitcoin reserves face hurdles: Treasury’s authority in doubt, Commerce Department emerges as candidate”
3. “Battle over ownership of 390,000 dormant BTCs: Digital business association blocks New York state lawsuit”
4. “Vitalik Buterin’s four-year roadmap: Can Ethereum retain its role in institutional settlements?”
5. “Asset management giants rush to hire new leaders: From rejecting crypto to pursuing tokenization”
6. “Strategy’s coin sales hide deeper motives: 1.25 billion limit is just the tip of the iceberg”
7. “Senator proposes banning officials from issuing coins, targeting Trump family’s 140 million profit”
8. “Foundations retreat to neutrality: How giant capitals control the fate of commercialization”
9. “Annual dividends of 1.26 billion: Strategy breaks its ‘never sell coins’ rule and initiates monetization”