BTC Market Weekly Report (Issue 4 · Week 28, 2026)

01Market Review

This week, BTC closed higher amid volatility, posting a 5.6% weekly gain as key support levels withstood selling pressure. As of the reference date of 2026-07-08, BTC was trading at $62,569.00, down slightly by 0.6% in 24 hours, but up 5.6% on a 7-day basis (indicating recovery in bullish momentum at the weekly level). Market sentiment remained neutral this week (46/100), with significant fluctuations: it surged 2.32% on July 6 to $64,370 driven by an increase in mergers and acquisitions and institutional buying, before falling 1.23% on July 7 due to institutional rebalancing following the realization of $216 million worth of MSTR holdings. Although there was a $370 million in bullish liquidations on July 8 (suggesting the cleanup of highly leveraged funds), Tether’s decision to burn $2.5 billion worth of USDT that day sparked speculation about liquidity adjustments, but it did not lead to a price crash.

There is a structural divergence in funding dynamics, with increased willingness to hold assets on-chain coexisting with volatile ETF inflows. On July 5, Ethereum withdrawals reached a three-year high, while Binance saw a sharp weekly outflow of $123 million (indicating stronger long-term holding intentions on-chain). However, macro-level concerns persist; in June, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a record $4.5 billion in outflows, reflecting a slowdown in short-term institutional allocation. Mergers and acquisitions surged 26 times over the past six months (as the industry undergoes a shift from startups to monopolistic giants), while on July 7, challenges arose regarding Trump’s strategic reserve initiative and disputes over Treasury Department authority (political tensions increasing market uncertainty).

• Keep an eye on whether the liquidity adjustments triggered by Tether’s burns after July 8 will continue, as well as the progress of leverage recovery following the $370 million in liquidations. • Closely monitor whether ETF inflows can stabilize after the record $4.5 billion outflows, and assess the impact of the merger wave on sector rotation.

02ETF Fund Flow

ETF Fund Flow

• Daily Net Inflow for BTC ETFs: $22M (2026-07-07) → Following historic outflows in June, there were signs of capital returning on this day, indicating a slight improvement in institutions’ short-term allocation intentions. However, caution is needed regarding the downward pressure caused by the previous $4.5 billion in outflows.
• Market Sentiment Correlation: The current price of $62,569.00, combined with a 7-day price increase of +5.6%, shows that the price rebound aligns with the inflow of ETF funds. This suggests positive expectations regarding potential strategic reserve policies by the Trump administration (such as plans to purchase millions of coins over five years). Yet, the daily inflow of $22M is not sufficient to completely reverse the $4.08 billion outflow trend seen in Q2.
• Sector Strength Comparison: BTC ecosystem strength score of 5.0 → Compared to privacy coins (7.3), the BTC sector receives relatively steady attention from funds. ETF inflows are primarily driven by macro-policy expectations rather than technological breakthroughs within the ecosystem.

03Core on-chain indicators

04Core On-Chain Indicators

The benchmark date is July 8, 2026, with the current BTC price at $62,569.00. Core on-chain indicators suggest that the market is in a phase of rational recovery. As of July 1, the MVRV value stood at 1.12903293, within a historical range that indicates no significant bubble in current prices and that asset valuations are returning to fundamental levels. The SOPR indicator read 0.99323097, showing a “loss-selling” status, which implies that some early holders or short-term speculators are exiting at prices below their cost. This is typically a sign of the market filtering out weak hands and strengthening the bottom, rather than panic selling. The NUPL value was 0.11428624, falling within the “hope” sentiment range, indicating that the market as a whole is not overly greedy or desperate, with investor sentiment remaining relatively stable.

In terms of capital flows, there were notable fluctuations in Whale activity. On-chain data showed a sharp rise in Whale activity by 46 and 60 points. Combined with BlackRock’s move to acquire $81 million worth of Bitcoin in just a few minutes on July 6, this suggests that smart money is taking advantage of market volatility to make strategic purchases. Although there were $370 million worth of liquidations in the market on July 6, the main victims were highly leveraged short sellers. The Whales’ contrarian buying behavior further confirms the strength of support in the current price range. Additionally, the exposure of Trump’s cold wallet holding over $50 million worth of Bitcoin, along with the SEC’s announcement of its regulatory agenda for 2026, provides policy certainty that encourages long-term funds to enter the market.

Taking into account on-chain valuations, the profit/loss status of holders, and Whale movements, the current market exhibits characteristics of “reasonable valuations, filtering out weak hands, and smart money accumulating positions.”

Overall On-Chain Signal Rating: Bullish Reasons: The MVRV being within a reasonable range rules out bubble risks. The SOPR indicating loss-selling shows that selling pressure is easing. The surge in Whale activity, coupled with large-scale purchases by institutions, confirms effective support at the bottom.

05Derivatives and Options

Benchmark date: 2026-07-08. The total settlement amount across the entire market in the past 24 hours reached $175,562,872.19720381, with long positions accounting for 67.0% and short positions accounting for 33.0%, indicating significant pressure on long-position leverage to be reduced during downward market trends. In terms of specific cryptocurrencies, WIF had the highest 24-hour settlement amount at $130,989.43197575, of which $129,359.43897575 came from long positions and only $1,629.993 from short positions, showing extreme one-way leverage reduction. PLAY and LTC followed closely, with settlement amounts of $86,127.5340654 and $83,269.82428999999 respectively, both of which had long-position settlements accounting for over 85%, suggesting that highly volatile assets are prone to triggering consecutive margin calls during pullbacks. CATI had a total settlement amount of $62,472.1867553, again with long positions holding a dominant position. In contrast, HUMA and AT saw bilateral settlements between long and short positions, with HUMA having slightly higher short-position settlements at $14,541.9748206 than long positions, and AT also having more short-position settlements at $5,234.3759656 than long positions, indicating heightened localized trading dynamics in some assets. Overall, the market leverage ratio remains high, with long positions concentrated in highly volatile assets such as WIF, PLAY, and LTC. Should prices continue to fall, the key support levels for these assets will face severe challenges, and systemic risk exposure is primarily concentrated in sectors where long positions are overly concentrated.

06Updates on Whales

【Benchmark Date: 2026-07-08】

Institutional funds showed clear signs of accumulating positions on 2026-07-06, with BlackRock completing purchases worth $81 million within just a few minutes, indicating that leading institutions are actively making strategic moves amid market volatility. Although MicroStrategy sold off $216 million in assets on 2026-07-07 due to its mNAV falling below 1, overall institutional funding is undergoing dynamic rebalancing without altering its long-term holding strategy. Meanwhile, the $140 million in crypto earnings reported by the Trump family on 2026-07-03 has sparked ethical controversies. The fact that their cold wallets hold over $50 million in Bitcoin and tens of millions in Ethereum reveals new dimensions of high-level digital asset allocation.

The pace of deleveraging has intensified, with $370 million worth of long positions being liquidated on 2026-07-08 alone, suggesting that Whales are proactively reducing their highly leveraged positions. If BTC breaks through the key level of $60,062, it is expected to trigger consecutive liquidations of short positions worth $105 million, indicating that the current battle between bulls and bears is at a critical point. On 2026-07-05, the willingness to hold assets on-chain increased significantly, with Ethereum withdrawals reaching a three-year high. Binance saw a sharp weekly outflow of $123 million, as funds are shifting from exchanges to the blockchain. Although Whales transferring assets to exchanges on 2026-07-04 raised concerns about selling pressure, weak employment data unexpectedly drove funds back into the market, intensifying market competition further.

07Miner Behavior

July 8, 2026, serves as the data benchmark date. The current total computing power across the network is 911.9 EH/s, with the mining difficulty remaining high at 133.87T. There are 86,076 pending transactions in the memory pool, resulting in a total accumulated fee of 0.0855 BTC, indicating network congestion. Given the current BTC price of $62,569.00, the estimated Hashprice is $29.4313/PH/day. Combined with the average block transaction fee of 0.014378 BTC (approximately $902) over the past 6 blocks, miners currently rely mainly on block rewards for their earnings, with transaction fees contributing relatively little. Although the SOPR indicator suggests that the market is overall in a loss-making selling state, the high difficulty level indicates that miners have not shut down their operations on a large scale, allowing the computing power network to maintain resilience amid volatile market conditions. With 127 blocks being mined in 24 hours, miners need to carefully balance operating costs and output at the price level of $62,569.00. Although the current fee rate is low (1 sat/vB), the fee premium during congestion still provides miners with additional profit margin.

08Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

Reference Date: 2026-07-08

As of the reference date, BTC was trading at $62,569.00, with a 24-hour decline of -0.6%. However, it had recorded a +5.6% gain over the 7-day period, showing an upward trend on a weekly basis. From a token rating perspective, BTC scored 65 points overall, with a technical score of 75 points—significantly higher than the average—indicating strong short-term momentum and healthy technical indicators. Although the liquidity score was 26 points, which is relatively low, the fundamental score of 76 points and the token economics score of 98 points provided solid underlying support, suggesting that current price fluctuations are driven more by short-term technical factors rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

The high technical score of 75 confirms that, despite a short-term daily adjustment of -0.6%, the price remained above key support levels. The +5.6% weekly gain further validated the effectiveness of the bullish trend. While the liquidity score of 26 suggests possible structural weaknesses in market depth, the strong backing of a token economics score of 98 indicates that the current technical pattern is more likely to represent a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Going forward, attention should be paid to how improved liquidity might facilitate price breakthroughs.

09Emotions and Capital

The market sentiment index remained stable within the neutral range of 46/100 from 07:08 05:56 to 06:09, but it had experienced severe fluctuations earlier, including a surge of 36.0 points from 14.2 to 50.1, as well as a sharp drop of 15.6 points from 51.8 to 36.2. There were two significant fluctuations in the activity levels on the Whale chain, rising by 46 points and 60 points respectively, indicating that large amounts of capital were actively entering the market. The consensus among key opinion leaders saw a dramatic shift, with the bullish-bear gap expanding by 85.0 percentage points; currently, 70% of the top 10 KOLs are bullish, while only 15% are bearish. The dominant narrative focuses on institutional allocations and profit expectations. Michael Saylor emphasized that the BTC break-even ARR for MSTR is often misunderstood, while Eric Trump pointed out that American Bitcoin achieved a 52% mining profit margin in Q1, reinforcing the case for long-term bullish positions. Although some views suggest that the tapering of on-chain lending subsidies might curb leverage usage, the overall capital flow and sentiment indicate an improvement in short-term risk appetite.

10Outlook and Risks

11Market Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-08

Neutral Outlook: The market sentiment index remains in the neutral range of 46/100, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears around the current price level of $62,569.00, with no clear consensus on the direction. ! Risk Warning: Although the volume of open contracts has been halved, the reduced depth of the order book has significantly weakened the market’s ability to withstand selling pressure, and liquidity shortages could amplify price volatility.

• Positive Signals: There are positive developments at the political level, with Congress planning to purchase millions of bitcoins over five years, and the Ministry of Commerce potentially taking over regulation to advance strategic reserve building.

Key Observations

1. Political Regulation Battles and Strategic Reserve Implementation

• Trend Assessment: Bullish in the short term. The deep involvement of the Trump family in crypto assets, along with Congress’s proposal to buy bitcoins, provides a potential narrative for long-term demand.
• Confidence Level: Medium to high. Although the authority of the Treasury Department is in question, the Ministry of Commerce’s involvement and Congress’s proposal clearly signal a shift in policy direction, and Trump has acknowledged that his change in stance stems from competition with China and business interests.

2. Liquidity Structure and Vulnerability After Deleveraging

• Trend Assessment: Bearish in the short term. After $8.35 billion in liquidations in Q2, although the market has completed deleveraging, the halved depth of the order book means that even slight selling pressure can trigger severe volatility.
• Confidence Level: High. Data from Talos shows a sharp reduction in liquidity channels, with spot ETFs experiencing $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, indicating insufficient financial support.

3. Reconfiguration of the Stablecoin Sector and Institutional Competition

• Trend Assessment: Slightly bullish neutral. Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, has launched OUSD to challenge USDT, which may reshape the profit distribution mechanism and benefit the compliant ecosystem in the long run. However, it could cause short-term fluctuations such as a sharp drop in Circle’s stock price.
• Confidence Level: Medium. A 26-fold increase in merger and acquisition activity indicates that the industry is undergoing consolidation and monopolization by large players, putting pressure on startups. Yet rising compliance costs may accelerate industry consolidation.

Scenario Analysis

Major Risk Factors

1. Liquidity Crisis Risk: After $8.35 billion in liquidations in Q2, the reduced order book depth has significantly weakened the market’s ability to resist selling pressure, making it easy for any sudden negative news to trigger panic selling.
2. Policy Implementation Uncertainty: Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves face obstacles from various departments, and the Treasury Department’s authority is in doubt. If progress in having the Ministry of Commerce take over is hindered, it could lead to selling pressure due to unmet expectations.
3. Institutional Funding Pressures: Strategy has suspended new share issuances and its cash reserves have dwindled, putting it under pressure to sell bitcoins to pay dividends, which could result in short-term supply shocks.
4. Market Volatility Caused by Stablecoin Competition: The launch of OUSD has caused a sharp drop in Circle’s stock price. The competition among stablecoin platforms and issuers may disrupt market sentiment in the short term.

12Related Reads

1. “140 million in crypto profits deemed legal, yet fierce conflicts erupt within families”
2. “M&A activities surge 26 times: The crypto decade from bedroom code to giant monopolies”
3. “Five million bitcoins hidden in cold wallets: Trump’s assets exposed”
4. “From calling Bitcoin a scam to embracing it as a core asset—out of fear of China taking the lead”
5. “Monthly losses of 450 million, three times more than funding raised—sharp drop in demand for Bitcoin ETFs”
6. “Trump’s Bitcoin reserves face obstacles: Treasury’s authority in question, Commerce Department emerges as a candidate”
7. “Bitcoin drops 52%: Why are funds fleeing en masse toward AI?”
8. “Senator proposes banning officials from issuing cryptocurrencies, targeting Trump family’s 140 million profit”
9. “Dispute over ownership of 390,000 dormant BTCs: Digital merchants fight against New York state’s lawsuit”
10. “Leverage drops by 30%, yet liquidity dries up: Why is the market more fragile?”
11. “Coinbase teams up with 140 giants to create OUSD; Circle’s stock plummets 16%”
12. “STRC plummets 26%: Why are Bitcoin giants trapped in a liquidity death spiral?”