BTC Market Weekly Report (Issue 6 · Week 28, 2026)

01Market Review

This week, BTC maintained an upward trend amid institutional capital struggles and fluctuations in market sentiment, recording significant gains on a weekly basis. As of the benchmark date of 2026-07-08, BTC was trading at $62,091.00, with a cumulative increase of 6.1% for the week (indicating that bulls were accumulating positions during pullbacks). The 24-hour trading volume reached $32.6B, suggesting ample market liquidity but also signs of short-term selling pressure. Although BTC dropped 0.35% on 2026-07-08 to $62,992, accompanied by $370 million in bullish liquidations (reflecting the cleanup of highly leveraged funds), it had previously surged to $64,370 on 2026-07-06, underscoring the intense competition in the upper resistance zone. During this period, the market sentiment index fluctuated between 46 and 52, with frequent activity among Whales. Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT in a single day, hinting at expectations of tightening liquidity. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy realized $216 million in cashouts as its mNAV fell below 1, indicating that institutional funds were undergoing dynamic rebalancing.

• Pay attention to the actual scale of selling pressure after Strategy launches its monetization plan and how it tests the $62,000 support level. • Monitor whether the sudden increase in Whale activity on the blockchain translates into sustained buying pressure to break through the weekly resistance levels.

02ETF Fund Flows

ETF Fund Flow

• Daily Net Inflow for BTC ETFs (2026-07-08): $0M → Institutional funds were in complete balance on this benchmark date, indicating that the market entered a wait-and-see phase after previous fluctuations, with no clear inflow of new capital or panic selling driving prices. The short-term price trend will depend on new macroeconomic catalysts or fund flow signals.

! Risk Warning: A zero daily net inflow combined with a 2.3% drop in prices over 24 hours suggests that the current price level of $62,091.00 lacks buying support. If zero inflow persists for several consecutive days or turns into net outflows, it could lead to short-term price corrections.

03Core on-chain metrics

Benchmark date: 2026-07-08. On-chain core indicators suggest that the market is in a phase of rational recovery. As of July 1, BTC’s SOPR was 0.99323622, with a status label of “lossy selling,” indicating that some holders are still exiting at prices below their cost basis. However, this value is extremely close to the 1.0 break-even point, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually diminishing. The MVRV indicator read 1.13013496, with a “reasonable” status; this figure falls around the 35th percentile historically, well below past bubble levels, indicating that current prices are not significantly overvalued and that the intrinsic value of the asset remains solidly supported. The NUPL indicator stood at 0.11514993, within the “hope” range, reflecting that market sentiment has recovered from extreme pessimism, with investors’ confidence in long-term holding gradually returning.

In terms of capital flows, there were notable fluctuations in Whale activity. On-chain data showed a sudden increase of 60 points in Whale activity. Combined with BlackRock’s purchase of $81 million within minutes on July 6, this is interpreted as typical “smart money” making strategic buys during volatile periods. Although Strategy initiated a monetization plan on July 7 due to dividend pressures and cashed out $216 million, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure, this institutional rebalancing did not change the underlying trend of net inflows of long-term funds. Additionally, Ethereum withdrawals hitting a three-year high and Binance’s weekly net outflows surging to $123 million further confirm an increased willingness to hold assets on-chain, with funds shifting from exchanges to cold wallets to avoid short-term volatility risks.

Taking both on-chain indicators and capital flow patterns into account, the current market exhibits characteristics of divergence: “underestimated indicators, smart money accumulating holdings, and retail panic.” The low levels of SOPR and MVRV provide a safety margin, while Whales’ contrarian buying confirms the effectiveness of support at the bottom.

Overall on-chain signal rating: Bullish Reason: Core valuation indicators are at historical lows and not in bubble territory. The surge in Whale activity and net outflows from exchanges indicate that major players are taking advantage of short-term institutional selling pressure to accumulate holdings, with a significant increase in the willingness to hold assets on-chain.

04Derivatives and Options

Benchmark date: 2026-07-08. The cumulative liquidation amount across the entire market over the past 24 hours reached $221,894,201.0698374, with long positions accounting for 74.7% of liquidations and short positions accounting for 25.3%, indicating that long-position leverage is under the greatest pressure during downward trends. Specifically, for WIF, the total 24-hour liquidation amount was $193,852.87277617, of which $192,812.58952617 came from long positions and only $1,040.28325 from short positions, showing extreme one-sided deleveraging. For LTC, the total liquidation amount was $114,159.35523, with $104,623.01525 from long positions and $9,536.33998 from short positions, also dominated by long-position margin calls. PLAY had a total liquidation amount of $79,978.9271347, with $78,232.0044683 from long positions and $1,746.9226664 from short positions. CATI’s total liquidation amount was $84,114.9582179, with $83,737.3767195 from long positions and $377.5814984 from short positions. FOGO had a total liquidation amount of $72,073.8730415, with $72,063.5337015 from long positions and $10.33934 from short positions. USAR’s total liquidation amount was $43,046.3644846, all from long position liquidations. HUMA had a total liquidation amount of $28,603.3488938, with $14,112.2742829 from long positions and $14,491.0746109 from short positions, showing a relatively balanced distribution between long and short positions. BB’s total liquidation amount was $19,459.130938, with $19,453.737868 from long positions and $5.39307 from short positions. AIXBT’s total liquidation amount was $19,876.188953099998, with $19,868.0891131 from long positions and $8.09984 from short positions. PROM had a total liquidation amount of $10,499.14949965, with $6,503.84073681 from long positions and $3,995.30876284 from short positions. AT’s total liquidation amount was $8,804.876137, with $3,570.5001714 from long positions and $5,234.3759656 from short positions, indicating a high proportion of short positions. BMNR’s total liquidation amount was $5,206.5768482, with $578.5278482 from long positions and $4,628.049 from short positions, dominated by short positions. DOLO’s total liquidation amount was $4,250.2032126, all from long positions. JOE’s total liquidation amount was $4,625.2001524, all from long positions. PARTI’s total liquidation amount was $3,847.1887305, with $3,730.9402305 from long positions and $116.2485 from short positions. LSK’s total liquidation amount was $827.9513000000001, with $825.408 from long positions and $2.5433 from short positions. NVO’s total liquidation amount was $1,044.5977217, all from long positions. WAXP’s total liquidation amount was $1,282.5750114, all from long positions. RIVN’s total liquidation amount was $5,450.1575358, with $5,444.9319358 from long positions and $5.2256 from short positions. JPM’s total liquidation amount was $5,498.055058, with $5,300.287058 from long positions and $197.768 from short positions. Currently, market leverage risks are highly concentrated on the long side, with extremely low short-position liquidation amounts for most cryptocurrencies, indicating that long positions are overly crowded during downward trends. If prices continue to fall, it could trigger a chain reaction of deleveraging, with systemic risks mainly manifesting as liquidity shocks caused by a high proportion of long-position margin calls.

05Updates on Whales

06Whale Activity Updates

Reference Date: 2026-07-08

Institutional funds have shown significant signs of rebalancing and divergent buying behaviors this week. On 2026-07-06, BlackRock completed a massive purchase of $81 million within just a few minutes, indicating that leading institutions are actively making strategic moves amid market volatility. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy had to sell off $216 million on 2026-07-07 due to its mNAV falling below 1 and dividend pressures, abandoning its long-term holding strategy in favor of active management, which has raised concerns about the scale of subsequent selling pressure. Despite these institutional sales pressures, Ethereum saw record withdrawals in three years on 2026-07-05, coupled with a sharp weekly outflow of $123 million from Binance, suggesting an increasing willingness to hold assets on the chain in the long term.

Leverage reduction and liquidity adjustments are taking place simultaneously. On 2026-07-08, as Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT in one day, the market witnessed $370 million worth of long-position liquidations, indicating that Whales are using reduced liquidity to close out highly leveraged positions. Earlier, on 2026-07-04, Whales’ transfer of assets to exchanges had sparked concerns about selling pressure, but subsequent capital returns indicated intensified trading activity. If BTC breaks through the key level of $60,062, it is expected to trigger consecutive margin calls worth $105 million, further exacerbating the divergence between bulls and bears. Overall, amid the backdrop of stablecoin destruction and asset rebalancing, institutions are reshaping the market’s equity distribution through large-scale transactions.

07Miner Behavior

July 8, 2026, serves as the data benchmark date. The current overall computing power of the network remains at 905.0 EH/s, with the mining difficulty fixed at 133.87T. At a spot price of $62,112, the estimated Hashprice is $29.1687/PH/day (including subsidies). Combined with an average block transaction fee of 0.015315 BTC (approximately $953) over the past 6 blocks, the current price level is sufficient to cover the mining costs, keeping miners in a profitable range. There are 83,757 pending transactions in the memory pool, resulting in a total accumulated fee of 0.0795 BTC, indicating that miners can earn additional income by prioritizing transactions with higher fees amid network congestion. Although key on-chain metrics show a SOPR of 0.99323622, suggesting a state of loss-making sales, the high computing power and profitability indicate that miners have not engaged in large-scale panic selling but rather maintained a steady pace of block generation.

08Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-08

As of the benchmark date, BTC was trading at $62,091.00, with a 24-hour decline of -2.3%. However, it still recorded a +6.1% gain over the 7-day period, indicating that short-term corrections have not altered the upward trend on the weekly chart. From a token rating perspective, BTC’s technical score is 75, significantly higher than its overall score of 65, suggesting that the current price structure still has strong support from technical indicators, and its short-term momentum outperforms that of the overall market.

The close similarity between the technical score (75) and the fundamental score (76) indicates that current price fluctuations are mainly driven by short-term sentiment rather than deteriorating fundamental conditions. Nevertheless, the liquidity score of only 26 suggests that the market may lack depth during sharp fluctuations, raising concerns about slippage risks. Despite a -2.3% decline in 24 hours, the +6.1% gain over 7 days, combined with a technical score of 75, confirms the continuation of the bullish trend. The current price is within the technical support range.

09Emotions and Capital

Market sentiment remains neutral overall, with the index stable within the 47/100 range. However, sentiment fluctuates sharply—the index once surged by 36.0 points (from 14.2 to 50.1) before returning to neutrality, and it also dropped abruptly by 15.6 points (from 51.8 to 36.2), entering a fearful phase. On the funding side, Whale activity on the chain saw two significant increases, rising by 60 points and 46 points respectively, indicating frequent inflows of large amounts of capital. There was a sharp shift in KOL consensus, with the bullish-bear gap expanding by 85.0 percentage points, and bulls now hold 70% of the market share. Although some views warn of market risks, such as the risk of history repeating itself where “everyone thinks the worst has passed,” on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s exchange supply has dropped to its lowest level since 2017, supporting a long-term bullish outlook. The dominant narrative sees a struggle between short-term volatility and long-term accumulation of holdings, with capital flows showing active deployment by institutions and large investors.

10Outlook and Risks

11Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-08

The market in this period has shown complex divergence driven by both political struggles and shifts in institutional strategies. The current price of BTC is $62,091.00, with a 2.3% decline over 24 hours, yet it still recorded a 6.1% increase over 7 days, indicating coexistence of short-term selling pressure and medium-term momentum [Market Snapshot]. The market sentiment index remains in a neutral range of 47/100, reflecting investors’ cautious attitude toward the implementation of macro policies and institutional selling pressure [Market Snapshot].

Neutral Observation: The conflict over interest arising from the Trump family’s $1.4 billion in crypto gains, along with the struggle between the Treasury Department and the Commerce Department over regulatory authority over strategic reserves, has shifted policy expectations from purely positive to one marked by increased uncertainty. ! Risk Warning: Strategy has broken its “never sell crypto” principle, with potential selling volume exceeding $3 billion. Moreover, the company is transitioning into an actively managed hedge fund, which could alter the market supply-demand structure.

• Positive Signals: Despite selling pressure, proposals in Congress to purchase millions of BTC over five years, along with efforts by RWA leaders like Ondo to reshape the logic of on-chain derivatives, provide new support for the long-term value of assets.

Key Observations

1. Institutional Selling Pressure and Liquidity Dynamics

• Trend Assessment: Short-term bearish. Strategy’s monetization plan and the authorization to sell $1.25 billion in crypto (with actual volume potentially exceeding $3 billion) will create significant supply pressure, restricting price upside.
• Confidence Level: High. There are clear authorization documents and disclosed funding amounts, making the logic behind selling pressure straightforward.

2. Uncertainty in Policy Regulation

• Trend Assessment: Neutral volatility. Trump’s strategic reserve plan faces challenges regarding the Treasury Department’s authority, with the Commerce Department possibly taking over. Additionally, internal family conflicts and senatorial bans add variables to the implementation of policies.
• Confidence Level: Medium. Political negotiations are lengthy, and the final regulatory framework has not yet been finalized. The market needs to wait for specific legislative progress in Congress.

3. Structural Evolution of the Industry Ecosystem

• Trend Assessment: Long-term bullish. A 26-fold increase in merger and acquisition activity, along with RWA leaders introducing 20x leveraged Perp DEXs, signals that the industry is moving from its startup phase toward monopolistic dominance and deeper integration with finance, thereby enhancing the underlying value of assets.
• Confidence Level: Medium-High. M&A figures and new product launches are established facts, reflecting increasing industry maturity.

Multi-Scenario Analysis

Major Risk Factors

• Political and Regulatory Risks: Senators’ proposals to ban officials from issuing crypto directly target the Trump family. If such bills pass or internal family conflicts intensify, it could trigger a crisis of trust in politically connected assets.
• Institutional Selling Risk: Strategy’s actual selling volume may exceed $3 billion. If the market cannot absorb this volume, it could lead to a chain reaction of sell-offs, causing significant price corrections.
• Technical Security Risks: As quantum computing approaches its breakthrough point, it may threaten the security of $180 billion in dormant assets. Although the impact may be limited in the short term, it poses a systemic risk in the long run.
• Stablecoin Competition Risk: Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, has launched OUSD to challenge USDT. Changes in the stablecoin landscape could affect market liquidity stability.

12Related Reads

1. “Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Faces Hurdles: Treasury’s Authority in Question, Commerce Department as Candidate”
2. “$140 Million in Crypto Profits Declared Legal; Severe Conflict Erupts within Family”
3. “Battle over Ownership of 390,000 Dormant BTCs: Digital Business Association Blocks New York State Lawsuit”
4. “From Calling Bitcoin a Scam to Embracing It—All Out of Fear of China Taking the Lead”
5. “Senator Proposes Banning Officials from Issuing Cryptocurrencies, Targeting Trump Family’s $140 Million in Profits”
6. “M&A Activities Surge 26-Fold: The Evolution of Cryptocurrency from Bedroom Code to Giant Monopolies Over the Past Decade”
7. “Annual Dividends of $1.26 Billion: Strategy Breaks Its ‘Never Sell Coins’ Principle and Initiates Monetization”
8. “Secrets Behind Strategy’s Coin Sales: The $1.25 Billion Cap Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg”
9. “RWA Leaders Attack Perp DEXs: 20x Leverage Reshapes Wall Street’s On-Chain Logic”
10. “Countdown to Q-Day: How Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin and $452 Billion in Assets”
11. “Coinbase Teams Up with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16% in This Strategic Move”