Market Structure Analysis (Issue 9 · Week 28, 2026)

01Executive Summary

[Core Conclusion]. Data from this period show that stablecoins saw an average daily turnover of $38 billion over the weekend, surpassing traditional payment networks. This indicates that crypto infrastructure is genuinely reshaping the global financial settlement system. Strategy received approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of tokens, breaking its “never sell tokens” rule, signaling a shift in institutional holding strategies from long-term accumulation to liquidity management. M&A activities have surged 26 times in just half a year, as the industry follows in the footsteps of traditional finance, putting pressure on the startup ecosystem to integrate.

02Background and Current Market Situation

Reference date: 2026-07-09

The crypto market is currently in a phase of consolidation and fluctuation. The total global market value of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.23 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $68.9 billion. BTC holds a dominant share of 55.9%. The current price of BTC is $62,354.00, down 1.9% in 24 hours but up 4.5% over 7 days. Its 24-hour trading volume is $25.6 billion, giving it a market value of $1,251 billion. ETH is currently trading at $1,747.01, down 1.7% in 24 hours but up 8.6% over 7 days. Its 24-hour trading volume is $9.7 billion, with a market value of $211 billion. BNB is priced at $570.78, down 1.3% in 24 hours but up 4.3% over 7 days. Its 24-hour trading volume is $533 million, corresponding to a market value of $77 billion. SOL is trading at $78.23, down 2.5% in 24 hours and up just 1.1% over 7 days. Its 24-hour trading volume is $2.3 billion, with a market value of $45 billion.

The development of this industry has seen a shift from being a speculative tool to becoming a core infrastructure in the global financial system. On 2026-07-07, the scale of stablecoin settlements reached $1.1 trillion, with average daily turnover exceeding $38 billion, surpassing that of traditional payment networks. On the same day, Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT in one day, setting a historical record that raised concerns about liquidity. Additionally, Strategy broke its long-standing rule of “never selling tokens” by launching a Bitcoin monetization plan to address dividend pressures.

The current market landscape features structural differentiation. As of 2026-07-08, the sentiment in the crypto market was neutral (47/100), with DeFi leading the decline by 9%, while AI and GameFi both dropping by more than 5%. On 2026-07-06, merger and acquisition activity surged by 26 times in just half a year, resulting in a “mass extinction” of startups as the industry began to follow traditional financial patterns. On 2026-07-07, Vitalik Buterin unveiled a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, focusing on second-level confirmation speeds and post-quantum security, which will determine whether ETH can realize its vision of serving trillions in transactions.

In terms of key milestones, on 2026-07-03, Coinbase, together with 140 other institutions, launched OUSD, redefining the mechanism for profit distribution and triggering intense competition over interests in the stablecoin sector. On 2026-07-02, after the securities regulator imposed heavy penalties on cross-border brokers, crypto exchanges took advantage of on-chain U.S. stocks to absorb excess demand, recording an average daily net inflow of $42 million. On 2026-07-07, Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves faced obstacles from various departments; the Commerce Department may take over regulation, with Congress planning to purchase millions of coins over five years.

03Core Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Technical Aspect: Leverage Liquidations and Support Level Battles The current price of BTC is $62,354.00, with a 24-hour decline of -1.9% and a 7-day increase of +4.5%. On 2026-07-07, BTC broke below the key support level of $62,000, triggering leverage liquidations worth over $1.69B, which severely impacted long positions in ETH and SOL. Despite three consecutive days of net inflows into ETFs, the spot discount and high leverage levels exposed the market’s vulnerability. The current price of ETH is $1,747.01, with a 24-hour decline of -1.7% and a 7-day increase of +8.6%. The current price of SOL is $78.23, with a 24-hour decline of -2.5% and a 7-day increase of +1.1%. The current price of BNB is $570.78, with a 24-hour decline of -1.3% and a 7-day increase of +4.3%. The market sentiment index stands at 45/100, indicating a neutral stance.

Fundamental Aspect: Stablecoin Infrastructure and Institutional Strategy Reconfiguration The scale of stablecoin settlements has reached $1.1T, with average daily turnover exceeding $38B—outpacing traditional payment networks and signaling the shift of crypto assets toward becoming core infrastructure in the global financial system. On 2026-07-07, Tether destroyed $2.5B worth of USDT in a single day, setting a historical record that raised concerns about tightened liquidity. Strategy broke its “never sell tokens” rule by launching a Bitcoin monetization plan to address the pressure from STRC dividend payments. Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, introduced OUSD to redefine profit distribution mechanisms, causing Circle’s stock price to plummet and sparking an ultimate battle over interests in the stablecoin sector. Vitalik Buterin unveiled a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, covering second-level confirmation and post-quantum security, prompting institutions to assess the risks associated with such technological changes.

Market Aspect: Sector Rotation and Regulatory Battles This week, funds shifted from the AI sector to Restaking and DeFi. AI Agents faced profit-taking pressures, while Restaking saw a strong rebound driven by high return expectations. On 2026-07-08, the crypto market sentiment was neutral (47/100), with DeFi leading declines of 9%, followed by AI and GameFi, both dropping by over 5%. On 2026-07-07, DEXs rose by 1.2% against the trend, whereas AI/Agents and GameFi declined by over 4%. On 2026-07-06, DeFi and DEXs led gains, while GameFi suffered a sharp drop of 5.2%. M&A activity surged by 26 times in half a year, resulting in the “extinction” of many startups as the industry follows in the footsteps of traditional finance. Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves have encountered obstacles from various departments; the authority of the Treasury Department is under question, with the Commerce Department possibly taking over regulatory duties.

04Data and Metrics

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Quantitative Performance of Key Assets

The current total global cryptocurrency market value is $2.23T, with a 24-hour trading volume of $68.9B. BTC maintains a dominance rate of 55.9%. The prices and liquidity metrics for major assets are as follows:

BTC and ETH show divergent trends, with ETH achieving a 7-day gain of +8.6%, significantly outperforming BTC’s +4.5%. Although major cryptocurrencies experienced slight declines within 24 hours, they still posted positive returns on a weekly basis. SOL performed relatively weakly, with only a 7-day gain of +1.1% and the largest 24-hour drop (-2.5%), indicating strong short-term selling pressure.

Multi-dimensional Ratings and Technical Analysis

Based on the latest token rating data, there are significant differences among various assets in terms of technology, fundamentals, and liquidity:

ETH boasts a high technology score of 88, the highest among the four major cryptocurrencies, reflecting its recent strong technical rebound. Although BTC has a slightly lower technology score (75), it excels in fundamentals (76) and token economy (98), supporting its solid position. Both BNB and SOL have overall scores below 60; BNB has a liquidity score of only 22, while SOL has 32, indicating a risk of liquidity discount in extreme market conditions. BTC also has a low liquidity score of 25, warranting caution regarding slippage in large transactions.

Sector Rotation and Capital Flow

This week (2026-W27), the market exhibited clear characteristics of internal competition, with capital shifting from the previously popular AI sector to Restaking and DeFi sectors.

Privacy coins led the way with a strength index of 5.7, becoming the most resilient sub-sector this week. The AI Agents and AI/Agent sectors saw significant capital outflows due to profit-taking. Restaking has emerged as a new trend driven by high return expectations, followed closely by DeFi. Although the strength indices for Layer1 and mainstream ecosystems (BTC/ETH/SOL) are all 5.0, indicating stable performance, the lack of new capital inflows means the market remains in a state of consolidation.

Market Sentiment and Institutional Movements

The current market sentiment index is 45/100, indicating a neutral outlook. Institutional funding shows signs of dynamic rebalancing: on 2026-07-08, BTC ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $26M, reflecting short-term profit-taking by institutions. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals increased activity by Whales, with simultaneous occurrences of Tether burns and Strategy sales. The market is seeking balance between regulatory uncertainty and traditional funds’ investment in tokens.

05Competitive Landscape

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The current crypto market features a competitive landscape centered around BTC, with ETH, SOL, and BNB competing in distinct roles. BTC has a market value of $1251B, accounting for half of the global crypto market capitalization of $2.23T. Its token economy score of 98 cements its status as digital gold. In contrast, ETH boasts a market value of $211B. Although it leads in terms of technical score at 88, its fundamental score of 73 is slightly lower than BTC’s 76, reflecting risks associated with technological restructuring in the context of institutional settlement initiatives.

The ETH ecosystem is undergoing a reshaping of its power structure. The Ethereum Foundation has divested its commercial functions, and entities like Bitmine have invested in establishing Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three major power centers. Institutional involvement and price dynamics will determine the future direction of this ecosystem. Vitalik Buterin’s four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum aims to achieve second-level transaction confirmation and post-quantum security to retain its position in the institutional settlement market, though such technological changes bring uncertainties.

SOL ranks fourth with a market value of $45B. Its technical score of 78 reflects its performance advantages, but its fundamental score of 64 is relatively low. Its 24-hour trading volume of $2.3B is higher than BNB’s $533M, indicating high activity on the chain. However, its token economy score of 79 lags behind BTC and BNB’s 98, raising questions about its long-term value creation potential.

BNB has a market value of $77B, and its token economy score of 98 is the highest among all, on par with BTC. It benefits from a strong ecosystem driven by exchanges. Yet, its fundamental score of 62 is the lowest among the four, and its technical score of 72 is not particularly strong, suggesting that its growth relies more on platform traffic rather than underlying technological innovation.

At the macro level, merger and acquisition activities have surged by 26 times in just half a year. The startup ecosystem is experiencing a kind of “extinction,” with the industry following traditional financial patterns. Rising compliance costs are leading to resource concentration among industry leaders. Meanwhile, the stablecoin sector is facing intense competition over interests. Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, has launched OUSD to challenge USDT, aiming to reshape the profit distribution mechanism. Circle’s stock price has plummeted, intensifying competition between distributors and issuers. Political factors also significantly impact the landscape. Trump’s family’s $140 million in crypto gains have raised concerns about conflicts of interest, and senators have proposed banning government officials from issuing cryptocurrencies, increasing regulatory uncertainty.

06Risks and Opportunities

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Key Risks

1. Uncertainty in Regulation and Policy Implementation (High Probability) Trump’s efforts to establish a strategic reserve program face obstacles from various departments, with the Treasury Department’s authority under question. The Commerce Department may take over regulation, and Congress plans to purchase millions of coins over five years. Additionally, senators have proposed banning elected officials from issuing meme coins, targeting Trump’s family’s $140 million in earnings and potential conflicts of interest. Mitigation Strategies: Closely monitor the progress of power-sharing between the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments, and assess the implementation timeline of congressional coin-purchase bills. Avoid meme coin assets strongly linked to politicians to reduce compliance and reputational risks.

2. Legal Ownership and Asset Freezing Risks (Medium Probability) The Digital Chamber opposes classifying 390,000 dormant BTC as lost property, fearing it could undermine the foundation of digital asset ownership. The value involved amounts to $234 billion. A loss in such lawsuits could lead to large-scale asset freezes or set a precedent for nationalization. Mitigation Strategies: Strengthen security audits of self-custodied wallets to ensure independent control over private keys. Pay attention to the outcomes of lawsuits in New York State, avoid holding assets associated with the involved addresses, and distribute storage to reduce the risk of single-point failures.

3. Ecosystem Monopoly and Shrinking Startup Ecosystem (Medium Probability) Rising compliance costs and venture capital pulling back to later stages have led to a 26-fold increase in mergers and acquisitions over half a year. The startup ecosystem is experiencing a kind of “extinction,” with the industry following traditional financial paths. Increased monopoly by giants may result in stalled innovation and concentrated liquidity. Mitigation Strategies: Focus on compliant leading projects and blue-chip assets, avoiding high-risk early-stage startup tokens. Pay attention to efficiency improvements brought about by mergers and acquisitions, rather than betting on niche, long-tail projects.

Key Opportunities

1. Strategic Shifts by Traditional Asset Management Giants (High Probability) Vanguard has broken its years-long resistance to crypto, urgently hiring digital asset experts to develop tokenization and stablecoin initiatives, signaling a major strategic shift. This indicates large-scale entry of traditional capital into crypto infrastructure. Mitigation Strategies: Develop platforms for tokenized asset issuance and core protocols for stablecoin ecosystems. Keep an eye on Vanguard’s future product developments and proactively allocate resources to underlying assets or infrastructure tokens they might collaborate on.

2. Reconfiguration of Stablecoin Channels and Profit Competition (High Probability) Coinbase, in partnership with Visa, BlackRock, and 140 other institutions, has launched OUSD, redefining profit distribution mechanisms and challenging the dominance of USDT. Circle’s stock price has plummeted as a result. The stablecoin sector is now witnessing a fierce competition over channels and issuance rights. Mitigation Strategies: Seize early benefits from the OUSD ecosystem and invest in assets related to Coinbase and its partners. Take advantage of the high liquidity in stablecoins—with $38 billion in daily transactions over weekends—to optimize capital efficiency and pursue higher-yield investment opportunities.

3. Ethereum’s Technical Upgrades and Institutional Settlement Vision (Medium Probability) Vitalik Buterin has unveiled a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, including second-level confirmation speeds and post-quantum security. Institutions need to evaluate the risks associated with these technical changes to determine whether ETH can fulfill its vision of becoming a trillion-dollar settlement layer. Mitigation Strategies: Invest in core ETH assets at lower prices, betting on its long-term value as an institutional settlement asset. Pay attention to the technical premiums brought by post-quantum security upgrades while avoiding short-term volatility during the transition period.

07Conclusions and Recommendations

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Summary of Key Insights The crypto market is navigating a complex phase of transformation, shifting from speculation toward institutionalization and compliance. At the policy level, conflicts over $140 million in crypto gains linked to the Trump family, along with proposals by senators to ban elected officials from issuing tokens, highlight regulatory uncertainty. In terms of the industry, Vanguard’s urgent recruitment of a head for digital assets signals a strategic shift among traditional asset management giants; merger and acquisition activity has surged 26 times in just half a year, leading to what some call an “extinction event” among startups as the sector follows in the footsteps of traditional financial monopolies. Regarding infrastructure, stablecoins see average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks and reshaping global financial infrastructure. On the technical front, the Ethereum Foundation is shedding its commercial functions, with giants like Bitmine emerging as new power centers, while Vitalik Buterin has unveiled a four-year upgrade plan to address the risks associated with technological restructuring.

Tailored Recommendations

Institutional Investors

1. Pay attention to regulatory arbitrage and policy dynamics: Given doubts about the Treasury Department’s authority and the possibility that the Commerce Department will take over regulation, it is crucial to closely monitor progress on Congress’s bill to purchase millions of BTC over five years. At the same time, be vigilant about the impact of senatorial proposals banning elected officials from issuing tokens on politically connected tokens.
2. Invest in tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure: Vanguard’s strategic shift indicates that tokenization has become mainstream. It is recommended to allocate funds to liquidity mining or underlying assets related to new types of stablecoins such as OUSD. Stablecoins now offer settlement capabilities that exceed those of traditional banks, making them a new channel for cross-border capital flows.
3. Assess the risks of Ethereum’s technological restructuring: Vitalik’s Lean Ethereum plan involves second-level confirmation and post-quantum security. Institutions need to evaluate its impact on the vision of trillion-dollar-scale settlements sowie potential costs associated with technological transitions.

Retail Investors

1. Avoid politically connected assets: The controversies surrounding the Trump family’s crypto gains and potential legislative restrictions make related meme coins and political-themed tokens extremely risky; it is advisable to steer clear of them.
2. Leverage stablecoins to improve capital efficiency: The high turnover of stablecoins during weekends and off-peak trading hours provides retail investors with financial management and payment benefits that surpass those of traditional banks. Consider high-yield stablecoin-based investment products.
3. Be cautious of the survival crisis among startups: The surge in industry mergers and acquisitions is shrinking the startup ecosystem. Retail investors should avoid investing in innovative projects that lack backing from major players or are still in their early stages, opting instead for assets from leading platforms.

Developers

1. Focus on compliance and institutional needs: As compliance costs rise, development efforts should shift from pure technological innovation to tokenization solutions that meet institutional compliance requirements.
2. Participate in Ethereum’s upgrade ecosystem: Keep up with Vitalik’s four-year roadmap by developing applications that support second-level confirmation and post-quantum security, thereby capturing the technological advantages in the institutional settlement space.
3. Explore new use cases for stablecoins: Utilize stablecoins’ ability to outperform traditional payment networks to develop new financial applications such as cross-border payments, retail penetration, and high-yield financial products.

08Related Reads

1. “Weekend Settlement: $76 Billion – How Stablecoins Are Outpacing Traditional Banks?”
2. “$1.26 Billion in Annual Dividends: Strategy Breaks Its ‘Never Sell Tokens’ Rule and Goes Toward Monetization”
3. “$140 Million in Crypto Gains Declared Legal; Intense Conflict Erupts Within Family”
4. “M&A Activity Surges 26-Fold: The Evolution of Cryptocurrency from Bedroom Code to Giant Monopolies”
5. “Vitalik Buterin’s Four-Year Roadmap: Can Ethereum Maintain Its Role in Institutional Settlements?”
6. “Coinbase Teams Up with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16%”
7. “Regulations Shut Down Cross-Border Brokers; On-Chain US Stocks Attract $42 Million Daily”
8. “Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Plans Stalled: Doubts About Treasury’s Authority, Commerce Department as Potential Candidate”
9. “Battle Over Ownership of 390,000 Dormant BTCs: Digital Business Associations Fight New York State’s Lawsuit”
10. “Asset Management Giants Rush to Hire New Leaders: From Rejecting Cryptocurrency to Investing in Tokenization”
11. “From Calling Bitcoin a Scam to Embracing It – All Because of Fear of China Taking the Lead”
12. “Senator Proposes Banning Officials from Issuing Cryptocurrencies, Targeting Trump Family’s $140 Million in Profits”
13. “Strategy Breaks Tradition by Selling Tokens; Stablecoin Giants Unite for a High-Stakes Crypto Political Gamble in 2026”
14. “Dell’s Stock Soars, SpaceX Follows: Who Will Reap Benefits from the Trillion-Dollar Fund Pool?”
15. “Foundations Retire to Neutrality; How Do Giant Capitals Control the Lifeline of Commercialization?”