Weekly Derivatives Market Report (Issue 7 · Week 28, 2026)

01Overview of the Derivatives Market

On 2026-07-09, the derivatives market exhibited a clear bullish dominance, though there were differences in the leverage structure. The BTC funding rate was 0.0031%, while that of ETH was 0.0013%; both remained positive, indicating that bulls had to pay a premium to hold their positions, reflecting strong short-term bullish sentiment in the market. In contrast, the SOL funding rate was -0.0014%, showing a negative value, which suggests that bears held an advantage in pricing or that the market was cautious about its short-term trend.

In terms of open interest, BTC contracts had an open interest of $45.76B, ETH at $23.88B, and SOL at $5.36B, indicating ample liquidity for these mainstream assets. The ratio of long to short accounts further confirmed the bullish dominance: for BTC, it was 64.0% long to 36.0% short; for ETH, it was 67.3% long to 32.7%; and for SOL, it even reached 69.0% long to 31.0%, showing that retail investors and institutions tended to take long positions in most mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Looking at the spot market, BTC was trading at $62,267.00, down 1.6% over 24 hours, while ETH was at $1,742.77, down 1.4% in the same period. Although spot prices saw short-term declines, the high proportion of long positions in derivatives and positive funding rates (except for SOL) suggest that there was no panic selling in the market. Instead, there might be attempts to build positions against the trend or leverage-driven buying to resist declines. However, highly leveraged bulls face significant risks amid price volatility, and they need to be vigilant about potential liquidation pressures.

02Fund Rate and Position Analysis

Benchmark date: 2026-07-09

The BTC funding rate was recorded at 0.0031%, remaining positive, indicating that bulls need to pay a fee to hold their positions, suggesting a mild bullish premium in the market. The ETH funding rate was 0.0013%, also positive but lower than that of BTC, implying that the bullish congestion in the Ethereum derivatives market is relatively lower. The SOL funding rate turned negative at -0.0014%, meaning bears need to pay fees to bulls, reflecting certain short-selling pressure or a bearish market sentiment regarding this asset.

In terms of open interest, BTC contracts had an open interest of $45.76B, dominating the market and indicating substantial capital engaged in trading Bitcoin derivatives. ETH had an open interest of $23.88B, ranking second, showing that Ethereum remains an important asset for both institutions and retail investors for hedging and speculation purposes. SOL had a relatively smaller open interest of $5.36B, but the combination of its negative funding rate and small open interest suggests that smaller-scale funds are expressing bearish views through short selling.

The ratio of long to short accounts shows that for BTC, 64.0% are long positions and 36.0% are short positions; for ETH, 67.3% are long and 32.7% are short; for SOL, 69.0% are long and 31.0% are short. Despite the negative SOL funding rate, the long-to-short account ratio still indicates a dominance of long positions, which may imply that retail or small investors tend to be bullish, while larger institutional investors or professional traders are driving down the overall funding rate through short selling, resulting in a split between majority of retail longs and institutional shorts. The long-to-short ratios for BTC and ETH align with their positive funding rates, indicating an overall bullish market sentiment, but caution is needed regarding potential liquidation risks due to high open interests.

03Liquidation and Leverage Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The total liquidation volume across the entire market in the past 24 hours reached 147676207.14110723, of which long-position liquidations accounted for 83.0% and short-position liquidations accounted for 17.0%, indicating that downward pressure in the market is primarily concentrated among long-leveraged positions. In terms of individual coins, WIF topped the list with a total liquidation volume of 193095.58605881, among which long-position liquidations amounted to 186847.5373576 and short-position liquidations were 6248.04870121, reflecting a severe deleveraging process for this coin amid high volatility. LTC followed closely behind, with a total liquidation volume of 131765.03409, including 125180.39831 in long-position liquidations and 6584.63578 in short-position liquidations, further highlighting the risk of overcrowding on the long side for mainstream cryptocurrencies.

PLAY had a total liquidation volume of 50728.6745839, with 43982.1672921 in long-position liquidations and 6746.5072918 in short-position liquidations. The coexistence of liquidations on both sides indicates significant price volatility, resulting in substantial losses for leveraged traders within this range. CATI had a total liquidation volume of 50384.9766698, with 50006.6870406 in long-position liquidations and 378.2896292 in short-position liquidations, almost all due to long-position margin calls, suggesting either strong short-side defense or a one-way decline in price for this coin. FOGO had a total liquidation volume of 39891.023527800004, with 39885.9723278 in long-position liquidations and only 5.0512 in short-position liquidations, also showing extreme characteristics of long-side stampeding.

USAR had a total liquidation volume of 13875.9211642, all in long-position liquidations with no records of short-position margin calls, indicating that its price did not trigger short-side stop-loss levels but instead directly broke through long-side support levels. PARTI had a total liquidation volume of 17468.638312000003, with 17352.389812 in long-position liquidations and 116.2485 in short-position liquidations, showing an extremely high proportion of long positions. AIXBT had a total liquidation volume of 15199.1889954, with 13837.8889914 in long-position liquidations and 1361.300004 in short-position liquidations, giving a long-to-short ratio of approximately 10:1, indicating that the leverage risk for long positions is significantly higher than that for short positions.

HUMA had a total liquidation volume of 10836.7067754, with 10668.9244878 in long-position liquidations and 167.7822876 in short-position liquidations, with long-position liquidations holding absolute dominance. JPM had a total liquidation volume of 5297.0291606, with 5099.2611606 in long-position liquidations and 197.768 in short-position liquidations, showing that traditional financial tokens also face deleveraging pressure from long positions in the derivatives market. RIVN had a total liquidation volume of 5362.7646358, all in long-position liquidations with no short-position margin calls. JOE had a total liquidation volume of 4469.6531524, all in long-position liquidations. NVO had a total liquidation volume of 1044.5977217, all in long-position liquidations. LSK had a total liquidation volume of 1089.9265, with 1033.6857 in long-position liquidations and 56.2408 in short-position liquidations. BB had a total liquidation volume of 1280.5568562, all in long-position liquidations. WAXP had a total liquidation volume of 376.2939083, all in long-position liquidations. BMNR had a total liquidation volume of 285.3984, all in long-position liquidations. AT had a total liquidation volume of 177.7706, all in long-position liquidations. DOLO had a total liquidation volume of 23.09736, all in long-position liquidations.

Overall, the 83.0% proportion of long-position liquidations indicates that the current systemic risks in the market mainly stem from excessive accumulation of long-leveraged positions. The main liquidation levels are concentrated in the dense long-side stop-loss areas of various cryptocurrencies, especially highly liquid coins such as WIF, LTC, and PLAY. Large-scale liquidations in these coins could trigger chain reactions and exacerbate the downward market trend. Investors should be vigilant against the stampeding risks caused by overcrowding on the long side and avoid blindly going long in environments with high leverage.

04Emotions and Capital Flows

The market sentiment index stood at 47/100, indicating a generally neutral outlook. In terms of capital flows, BlackRock’s IBIT product withdrew 883.6 BTC (worth $54.8 million) from Coinbase, suggesting active buying by institutional investors. On the narrative front, Ethereum is considered to be in the second least undervalued range in history, attracting attention from bulls. Popular topics included losses among TRUMP token holders, financing for AI computing infrastructure, Chainlink’s cross-chain integration, the implementation of stablecoin regulatory frameworks, and the vibrant meme coin ecosystem on Solana, reflecting the market’s efforts to find a new balance between macro narratives and ecosystem applications.

05Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Neutral Outlook: The current price of BTC is $62,267.00, with a 24-hour decline of 1.6%, but a 7-day increase of 3.1%, indicating that there is still weekly-level support despite short-term corrections. The current price of ETH is $1,742.77, with a 7-day gain of 7.5%, outperforming BTC and reflecting investors’ preference for the upgrades in the Ethereum ecosystem.

! Risk Warning: Strategy has broken its “never sell crypto” rule by obtaining approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of assets, and the actual scale of sales could exceed $3 billion. The potential selling pressure resulting from this transformation of an actively managed hedge fund is a major factor suppressing BTC’s upward momentum.

• Positive Signals: Vanguard is urgently recruiting a head for digital assets, signaling a strategic shift by traditional asset management giants. Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, has launched OUSD to redefine the profit distribution among stablecoins. The improvement of institutional infrastructure lays the foundation for a long-term bull market.

Key Observations

1. Institutional Selling Pressure and Liquidity Dynamics Strategy has initiated a monetization plan to address the dividend pressure from STRC preferred stocks. Although the $1.25 billion limit may seem manageable, accounting maneuvers could lead to a larger actual sale volume.

• Trend Prediction: Short-term bearish, limiting BTC’s rebound potential.
• Confidence Level: High (based on clear corporate financial actions and disclosed data).

2. Regulatory and Political Uncertainty Trump’s strategic reserve plan has faced obstacles, with questions raised about the Treasury Department’s authority; the Commerce Department may take over regulation. Senators have proposed banning officials from issuing crypto, targeting potential conflicts of interest.

• Trend Prediction: Neutral to bearish, as slower policy implementation increases market volatility.
• Confidence Level: Medium (political dynamics are complex, with uncertain outcomes).

3. Ethereum Ecosystem Restructuring Vitalik Buterin has released a four-year roadmap covering second-level confirmation and post-quantum security. The Ethereum Foundation is shedding its commercial functions, with major companies investing to establish new power structures.

• Trend Prediction: Long-term positive, though short-term risks related to technological restructuring need to be addressed.
• Confidence Level: Medium to high (clear technical roadmap and increasing institutional involvement).

Major Risk Factors

• Whale Selling Risk: Large-scale sales by Strategy could deplete market liquidity instantly, triggering cascading liquidations.
• Sudden Regulatory Changes: The regulatory approach of the U.S. Congress and executive branch regarding crypto assets remains unclear, and any negative legislative developments could cause market panic.
• Intensifying Competition Among Stablecoins: The launch of OUSD challenges the dominance of USDT. Circle’s stock price plummeted by 16%, reflecting market concerns over instability in the stablecoin landscape, which could affect the efficiency of fiat inflows and outflows.

Scenario Analysis

Summary of Strategies: Given the uncertainty surrounding Strategy’s selling pressure, it is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy. If BTC breaks below the critical psychological threshold of $60,000, positions should be gradually reduced to avoid downside risks. If the market stabilizes and shows signs of strong upward momentum, phased buying can be considered, with a focus on assets benefiting from the Ethereum ecosystem.

06Related Reads

1. “140 million in crypto profits deemed legal, yet fierce conflicts erupt within the family”
2. “Trump’s Bitcoin reserves face hurdles: Treasury’s authority in question, Commerce Department as a candidate”
3. “Battle over ownership of 390,000 dormant BTCs: Digital business associations resist lawsuits in New York State”
4. “Secrets behind Strategy’s coin sales: The 1.25 billion limit is just the tip of the iceberg”
5. “Asset management giants rush to hire new leaders: From rejecting crypto to pursuing tokenization”
6. “Coinbase teams up with 140 giants to create OUSD; Circle’s stock plummets 16% in the ensuing struggle”
7. “Annual dividends of 1.26 billion: Strategy breaks its ‘never sell coins’ rule and initiates monetization”
8. “Senator proposes banning officials from issuing coins, targeting Trump family’s 140 million in earnings”
9. “Vitalik Buterin’s four-year roadmap: Can Ethereum maintain its role in institutional settlements?”
10. “Foundations retreat to neutrality; how do giant corporations control the fate of commercialization?”